The New York Times reports on a conference in Nova Scotia: A New Measure of Well-Being From a Happy Little Kingdom* (registration req’d). [Thanks to the New Economist, who in turn thanks other two bloggers.]
Everyone agrees that GDP is not the same thing as social welfare: economists learn this point early on in our principles courses. A more useful tool for policy analysis would be what we call a ‘Social Welfare Function’ (SWF): an index that increases when society as a whole is better off. Things like General Progress Indicators (GPI) – such as the one generated by GPI Atlantic – are attempts to construct SWFs.
Those of us who remember our social choice theory will recall Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, which demonstrates that there is no way of generating a democratic, coherent social ordering. It also implies that there is no democratic, coherent SWF, either.
From the NYT article:
Ronald Colman, a political scientist and the research director for Canada’s well-being index, said one challenge was to decide how much weight to give different indicators.
In fact, that is the challenge, and it’s insurmountable. I don’t think that anyone would dispute the notion that (for example) the 22 indicators listed here are of interest. But after 30 minutes of rootling around that site, I still can’t find any description of how much of an increase in a given health indicator would be required to compensate for an increase in inequality, or how they would be balanced against a reduction in employment, let alone any justification for why that tradeoff is reasonable – or even why that tradeoff should be constant.
Later on, it is suggested that
…Canada’s index could eventually take the form of a report card rather than a single G.D.P.-like number.
This is a much more sensible exercise. As an econometrician, I welcome new data sets, and especially ones that can be used to evaluate policy. But I’m very suspicious of any attempt to aggregate them into a single index.
*Note: the kingdom in question is Bhutan, not Canada.
Genuine Progress Indicator v. GDP
In sorting out how to measures progress toward sustainability, I grapple with the relevance (or none) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) accounting relative to more recently developed accounting as embodied in, say, a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). GPI…
Nice post.. I’m going to have to rattle the cages of the folks at Redefining Progresss and the folks at Steady State Economics to see how they justify their efforts at both Genuine Progress Indicator analysis and Ecological Footprint analysis relative to Arrow’s theorem.