Yield curve and uncovered interest rate parity update

As a follow-up to this post, here are the US and Canadian yield curves from March 2006 and December 2005.

Yields0306

The slopes haven’t changed much, but the US curve has shifted up at a faster rate than the Canadian yield curve. This is part of a trend that goes back at least 12 months:

Parities0306

The difference between US and Canadian inflation rates has been pretty stable over the past couple of years (Canadian CPI inflation is about one percentage point less than in the US), so it would appear that the market is expecting the CAD to appreciate even further against the USD over the next couple of years.

4 comments

  1. mc's avatar

    Honey, did you remember to take the garbage out?

  2. Unknown's avatar

    Well, no, sorry. But in my defence, can I point out that garbage day is Friday?

  3. mc's avatar

    I know but you can still put it outside when it overflows and smells, can you?

  4. Leon's avatar

    You are being proven right. But do you think that the parallel shift out to 10 years to maturity is also linked to anticipation of currency appreciation? That looks like a shift in risk premia, which could be linked to the associated premia compression observed in the US. (Greenspan’s “conundrum”)