The trade surplus increased in August:
Canadian companies exported merchandise worth $38.7 billion in
August, up 0.3% from July, with strong gains in industrial goods and
materials and automotive products. On the other hand, imports
declined 0.6% to $34.5 billion, following two consecutive monthly
increases.
The resulting merchandise trade surplus amounted to $4.2 billion, compared with $3.9 billion in July.
The surplus with the United States, Canada’s largest trading
partner, moved up from a revised $8.1 billion to $8.2 billion. Both
exports and imports declined, but imports fell more than exports.
At the same time, the nation’s trade deficit with countries other
than the United States narrowed from $4.2 billion in July
to $4.0 billion.
But the writing seems to be on the wall:
That said, not [everyone] thinks Canada’s surplus will continue to expand.
“Over the next two months we expect the trade surplus to fall quite
sharply to the $2.5-billion to $3-billion range reflecting the recent
sharp drop in energy prices,” said Ted Carmichael, chief economist at
J.P. Morgan Securities Canada, in a research note.
The net-of-energy trade balance has now gone negative, so energy exports account for the surplus we have.
If oil prices continue to drop, then the trade surplus will start to fall soon.

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