Oil sands graph of the day

Courtesy of the Oil Drum:

Cou200610_fig4_small

Between now and 2020, production from the oil sands is likely to increase by about 2 million barrels per day – almost the equivalent of the arrival of another Venezuela on the world market.

I’ve been trying to get a handle on the effects that the development of the tar sands will have on Canada (I use the terms ‘tar sands’ and ‘oil sands’ interchangeably). I’m not done yet, but this graph shows why it’s worth thinking about. A lot.

One comment

  1. Valuethinker's avatar
    Valuethinker · ·

    Stephen
    figure 5m b/d or 1.825bn bl/year. That’s probably, physically, all the resource can stretch to by 2025. There are water, infrastructure, gas supply and labour supply issues.
    Figure $100/bl for oil.
    Say $182bn pa, but the ‘value add’ would be less than half that, taking out costs of production. So say $91bn (half).
    Currently c. 0.9% of Canadian GDP, but of course by 2020 Canadian GDP will be larger?
    There are significant multiplier effects, but a lot of the manpower and steel etc. will have to be imported.
    Significant, but not (directly), huge.