For some inexplicable reason, the Globe and Mail decides that valuable space should be devoted to the musings of a US-based consultant:

Where would Canada be without sizzling Alberta? Stalled without it, U.S. economist says: Alberta’s sizzling economy is keeping all of Canada from burning out, reckons one U.S.-based economist.

Carl
Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla,
N.Y., figures that Alberta’s economy has been growing at about 7 per
cent, year over year.

By that measure, all of the other provinces and territories together
posted an uptick of only 0.6 per cent in November compared with the
same month in 2005, he estimates.

On Wednesday, Statistics Canada reported that gross domestic product
edged up 0.2 per cent in November compared with October, and 1.6 per
cent compared with the same month a year earlier.

Mr. Weinberg’s research suggests that the steady slowdown in growth
that the Bank of Canada has been betting on appears to be more of a
stall when Alberta’s performance is stripped out.

"Most Canadians, we must recall, live outside the special economic zone that is known as Alberta.

"Uh oh!," writes Mr. Weinberg in a note to clients.

Faithful readers of this blog will be no doubt be familiar with the salient features of the evolution of the Canadian economy over the past few years: higher oil prices have boosted the fortunes of the Alberta-based petroleum sector, and the associated appreciation of the CAD has hurt central Canada’s manufacturing sector.

Canadian economic growth has been concentrated in Alberta. And it’s entirely reasonable to imagine that the recent softening of oil prices will slow the Alberta economy. But lower oil prices will generate downward pressure on the CAD, thereby making the manufacturing sector a source of growth on its own. So if Alberta’s economy slows, it will be due to causes that will increase growth elsewhere in Canada.

"Uh oh!" indeed:  Mr Weinberg’s clients appear to be paying for an analysis based on the fallacy of composition.