Here are some data* on how the Canadian labour market has evolved since the CAD started appreciating against the USD five years ago:
Very belated update: As a faithful reader of Andrew Gelman’s blog, I’ve been wondering if there was a better way of conveying this information. I think a bar chart would have been better:
What feature of this graph these graphs do you think is most important in a discussion of monetary policy?
- The 1.4m new jobs in Canada?
- The 480,000 new jobs in Ontario?
- The 80,000 fewer jobs in the Ontario manufacturing sector?
If you answered (3), then you might consider applying for a job writing Toronto Star editorials; it’s pretty much the only place on earth where such silliness is viewed as serious commentary.
*For those of you trying this at home, the data are taken from Cansim Table 281-0025. The data are monthly, and I took the quarterly averages.
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
I agree with you. But as per your graph, there are 84K manufacturing jobs less in Ontario, not 120K. I will also add the following question:
Why Ontario manufacturing jobs went down ~10% while it only went down ~5% in the rest of Canada?
Yikes – arithmetic error fixed!
Part of the answer might be that the growth in Western Canada would spill over to manufacturing industries that supply things that are usually locally-made (ex: food preparation) to those regions.
1.4 million jobs – well, immigration has meant that the Canadian population has grown by over 1 million in the same time frame. ontario gets at least 40% to 50% of the immigrants, so 480,000 jobs in Ontario isn’t quite as impressive.
we import food, luxury cars and all sorts of other goods – if manufacturing declines, what will we export/are we exporting to generate income and to pay for those imports? well, resources mostly, and energy in particular. i hate having to use the cliche of “hewers of wood, drawers of water”, but we are heading back in that direction
probably one of the reasons for the growth was our low dollar ans the low post 911 interest rates. then you have the boom in housing and in oilsands construction – neither of which can be the basis of a sustainable economy, and given kyoto, expansion of fossil fuels is the last thing we shouuld be doing, and the oild sands are doubly bad because of the use of natural gas to create a final product which will in istelf add more carbon to the atmosphere.
my rough understanding is that the job growth has been in:
healthcare
government
construction
finance
IT
energy
only energy, finance and IT might have have exports/sales to foreign markets
As in other developed countires, unemployment, UE, and inflation, CPI, in Canada are driven by the change in labor force, LF. Specifically, in Canada
CPI(t) = 3.8dLF(t-2)/LF(t-1) + 0.78UE(t-2) – 0.098 (3)
This relationship accurately links the measured variables and allow prediction with an accuracy of labor force projections. I can not put figures in this comment but provide the link to an extended post on the prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada.
link