Not Dutch Disease, it’s China syndrome

Statistics Canada has published a survey article (15-page pdf) that covers many of the points I’ve been making (eg: here, here and here) about how the Canadian economy has adjusted to the terms of trade shock induced by higher oil and commodity prices. Overall, the effects have been positive, or at least benign:

The Canadian economy doesn’t have "Dutch Disease"; it is in a period
of restructuring characterized as "China syndrome", according to a new
study released today in the Canadian Economic Observer.

At first glance, the post-2002 boom in commodity prices and exchange
rate appreciation in Canada does seem to resemble the events that
precipitated "Dutch Disease", which refers to the combination of a
booming resource sector, a rising currency and a resulting decline in
output in manufacturing.

However, the Dutch case involved the discovery of a new resource,
while Canada’s recent trend stems from the integration of emerging
nations, particularly China, into the global economy. Also, contrary to
the Dutch experience, during which manufacturing faltered in the short
term, overall manufacturing output in Canada expanded by 1.3%
between 2003 and 2006. The construction and services sectors have also
exhibited growth.

The arrival of China has simultaneously lowered the prices of
consumer goods and raised resource prices. This combination of price
changes initiated by China accelerated a widespread restructuring of
the Canadian economy. Strong demand from resource industries has led to
higher employment and wage growth.

The increased incomes in the resource industries have fed demand for
goods and services, supporting growth in areas such as construction and
finance and real estate.

At the same time that manufacturing has shed jobs, its overall
output remained steady, supported by advances in the production of
machinery and equipment, computers and electronics, as well as primary
and fabricated metals. Many of the cuts in manufacturing reflected
structural changes in areas such as clothing, autos and forestry
products that originated for reasons other than the rising exchange
rate.

Not only are wages and incomes on the rise but the appreciating
Canadian dollar, rising commodity prices and falling manufacturing
prices have meant that Canadians’ purchasing power has increased. As
Canada’s terms of trade improved, with imported goods becoming
relatively less expensive even as resource prices rose, Canada has been
able to turn its resource exports into more imported manufactured
products.

The integration of emerging countries into the global economy is
symbolized by the surge in China’s growth, which coincided with the
boom in resource prices after 2002. The resource boom in Canada
resulted in higher wages, attracting individuals, primarily from the
Atlantic Provinces, to the West, notably Alberta. Inter-provincial net
migration to Alberta averaged 24,000 per year from 2003 to 2006.
In 2006 alone, Alberta received 57,000 migrants from other provinces,
the largest movement of people to a province on record back to 1972.


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