Monthly Archives: August 2008
Election markets are silly
I understand the theory behind the claim that election markets might be more useful tools for predicting election outcomes than opinion polls: Pollsters ask about current opinion ('If an election were held today, …'), and election markets focus attention on what really matters: what actually happens on election day. Poll respondents have essentially no incentive […]
On the benefits of school choice: A natural experiment in Ontario
The government of Ontario provides public funding for two parallel school systems: separate (Catholic) and public (non-Catholic) – I'm going to resist the temptation to provide a paragraph here outlining the constitutional and political history that explains why this is the case. For what follows, all we need to know is that in Ontario, Catholics […]
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates across countries
I'm not spending a lot of time following the US election, but I've noticed quite a few posts in the economics blogosphere about John McCain's proposal to reduce corporate tax rates. The issue of whether or not to cut corporate tax rates has been hashed out pretty thoroughly in Canada over the past few years, […]
Exactly *how* is the US slowdown being transmitted to Canada?
Any number of analysts – including me – have noted that 25% of Canadian output is exported to the US. So it's natural to conclude that a reduction in economic activity in the US will reduce the demand for Canadian goods, and that this would in turn induce a reduction of economic activity in Canada. […]
Markets bravely go where politicians fear to tread
Hallmark introduces gay marriage cards: Now that more than 1,000 newspapers across the nation accept wedding announcements from same-sex couples, it only seems right that Hallmark should make a card specifically celebrating that happy occasion. And they have. Finally. Hallmark added the cards after California joined Massachusetts as the only U.S. states with legal gay […]
Self-sufficiency in food: always and everywhere a bad, bad idea
I'm back from vacation, and the quality of economic analysis in our nation's Newspaper of Record hasn't changed: Everything is not peachy: From households to nations, we need to get serious about food self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency isn't a sexy idea. At best, people who say they're interested in being self-sufficient are stereotyped as dour, old-fashioned rural […]
Canada-US disconnect data point du jour
July’s auto sales numbers in the US: WSJ – Auto Sales Sink, With Big Three Hit Worst: The downtrend again hit a wide swath of auto makers, with the Big Three taking the brunt of it. GM, on the same day it posted a $15.5 billion quarterly loss, reported that its sales of cars and […]
On the GDP-employment disconnect
In both the US and Canada, employment and GDP numbers are going in different directions. Employment rates are at all-time highs in Canada, and they’ve been falling (from a not-particularly high starting point) in the US. OTOH, US GDP numbers have been outperforming those in Canada. Why? I suppose one place to look is the […]
The 21st century business cycle?
The May GDP numbers are out, and we’re still below the level observed in November of last year. But can we call it a recession? If we do, we’d have to call it a 21st-century recession: it looks a lot like what we saw in 2001-2, but not much like we’d seen before. Here are […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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