Monthly Archives: December 2008
October may have been the peak. Now what?
An ugly LFS report: employment fell by 71,000 – the sort of report we haven't seen since the last time we were in recession. And no commodities boom is going to come save us this time. It's time to do something - but not just anything. The cutbacks in the Harper government's economic update were clearly wrong-headed, […]
The Bank of Canada’s Assets
When I was writing my last post, on commercial and central bank solvency , I wasn't sure whether it was worth posting, because maybe everybody already knew this stuff. But I decided to post it anyway. Now I'm glad I did. I got some good comments from JKH, which opened up a new avenue to […]
Do private sector forecasters have an incentive to produce good forecasts?
John Palmer at EclectEcon asks "What if bad forecasting led to losing one's job?": [I]f I were making forecasts for a financial group or a private firm, one would expect I would lose my job if I made consistently bad forecasts. There was a time when the Department of Finance would make its own projections […]
When irrational panic becomes the new normal
Jack Mintz followed up on his op-ed column with a question-and-answer session on the Globe and Mail's website. The points he made would be familiar to readers of this blog – Canada is not the United States, we are not in recession (although the odds that we will be soon are much better than even), […]
Two perspectives on commercial and central bank solvency
I start a bank. I have zero capital. I borrow $100 and lend $100. What is the net worth of my bank? Looking at the balance sheet, the answer is simple and obvious: assets $100, liabilities $100, net worth = assets minus liabilities = $0. But looking at the income statement we may get a […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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