Employment sticks to the script

February 6, 2009 · by wciecon · in The 2008-9 recession · 2 Comments

Unfortunately, we're at the scary part.

Here's what has happened to employment during the first three months of the recession, compared to previous recessions.

Nick Rowe · February 8, 2009 - 8:24 am · Reply→

A couple of things that caught my eye in the data:
1. The “Man-cession” theme. Just like the US, it is hitting men worst. Men (25+) unemployment is now 6.7% vs 5.4% for women.
2. Manufacturing employment fell much more, month over month , at 5.2%, than construction, which fell 0.4%. We are only beginning to see construction weakness (up 1.7% year over year), while manufacturing has been falling longer (down 7.4% year over year). This continues you theme, Stephen. But how much longer it will last, I don’t know.
I wonder if it’s different in those regards than past recessions?
Stephen Gordon · February 8, 2009 - 8:49 am · Reply→

I just made similar graphs for the construction and manufacturing sectors. Construction is still on track (December was bad, January not quite so bad), but manufacturing is clearly below the other paths: down more than 6% since October. You have to figure that part of this is part of the longer-run trend against manufacturing employment, but that’s a lot to fall in so short a time.