Monthly Archives: March 2009

A model of wealth distribution, falling interest rates, ZIRP, unemployment, and quantitative easing

I will sketch a simple model in which the distribution of wealth gets more unequal over time, how the equilibrium real interest rate falls over time, eventually leading to a zero nominal interest rate, and unemployment. I will then show that an increase in the money supply can increase employment, despite zero nominal interest rates.

What are the odds of deflation in Canada?

For the better part of a generation, the Bank of Canada has followed this rule: If core CPI is around 2% and if there are neither inflationary or disinflationary pressures, do nothing. If core CPI inflation is above 2% and if there are disinflationary pressures, do nothing. If core CPI inflation is above 2% and […]

(Im)perfect financial markets and quantitative easing

If financial markets were perfect, quantitative easing would have no effect on aggregate demand. But if financial markets were perfect, we wouldn't have the financial crisis, and so wouldn't need quantitative easing.

The return of Monetarism vs. Keynesianism?

Maybe it isn't the return of Monetarism. Or rather, it isn't the return of only Monetarism. Maybe it's the return of Monetarism vs. Keynesianism, 1960's style, applied to unorthodox monetary policy.

Cash-in-advance constraints and modeling liquidity traps

It was good to see Paul Krugman's response to my previous post. We agree more than we disagree, I think. We need to move outside the Neo-Wicksellian perspective if we want to look at monetary policy where short-term interest rates are already at zero. You can't use a model which contains i and does not […]

The return of Monetarism

As interest rates approach zero, and central banks look at "unorthodox" monetary policies, the Neo-Wicksellian perspective on monetary policy has switched to a blank screen. We are witnessing the return of Monetarism. That's the main reason why economists find it hard to think about unorthodox monetary policies. The dominant Neo-Wicksellian paradigm which fills our heads […]

Who will buy the bonds? Eurozone edition

This is a followup to my previous post "Who will buy the bonds?". It is also a followup to my January 20th post "Canada and the Eurozone: a comparison". The main theme of that second post is that the Eurozone is like Canada, only without the Federal government of Canada. Eurozone countries are like Canadian […]

Might fiscal policy fail to increase aggregate demand?

Yes, it might fail. Economists ought not be confident enough in our knowledge of how the economy works to say they are certain that a temporary increase in government spending will definitely increase aggregate demand. We just aren't that good (as if that needed saying). Here is one reason why it might fail. I think […]

Who will buy the bonds?

"The government needs to sell bonds to finance an expansionary fiscal policy. But who will buy the bonds? What happens if nobody wants to?" What we ought be be concerned about is the exact opposite. The fiscal policy will be more likely to succeed if people do not want to buy the bonds.