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The June CPI release: Deflation isn’t here, and the chances that it will arrive are receding

July 17, 2009 8:21 pm

The June CPI numbers played out according to form. Happily, the good people at Statistics Canada went to great lengths to point out exactly how and why the y/y headline number was negative, so – with the notable exception of the Globe and Mail – journalists were able to put together stories that weren't teeth-grindingly stupid.

Here is the June 2009 version of my series of graphs of inflation rates of core CPI – the series that matters for monetary policy:

Core_06_09

Average core CPI inflation over the past three months has now moved above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. A few more months like this, and we can start to forget about the deflation that darkened our doors in the first quarter of 2009.

Posted by wciecon

Categories: Monetary policy

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