Today’s GDI release: both GDP and the terms of trade are improving

There's been a certain amount of commentary on today's GDP release. An annualised growth rate of 0.4% for 2009Q3 is better than zero – and it's at the 80th percentile of the predictive density generated by my toy predictor – but it's not what you'd call a strong recovery.

Happily, there's better news about GDI. The rebound in commodity prices has generated in a recovery in our terms of trade, resulting in an increase of our buying power of 3.3% at annual rates.

Gdi_09q3
(See this post for an explanation of the difference between GDP and GDI).

With any luck, this will be the last post filed under the 'current recession' category.

4 comments

  1. Andrew F's avatar

    If there is a double dip, triggered by falling US demand, will that be a new recession?

  2. Stephen Gordon's avatar

    I guess I’d call that bad luck…

  3. jeremy's avatar

    i thought gdi also took into account the income Canada gets from it’s overseas investments?

  4. miko's avatar

    A commentor on your last post about GDI asked how this explanation could cause deflationary pressures. The GDI theory of the recession is compelling, but I’m still curious about this point.

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