Monthly Archives: March 2010
Some simple arithmetic of debt/GDP and population growth
I had always known that a given debt/GDP ratio would be more worrying for a country with declining population than for a country with a growing population. There will be fewer future people to carry the same future burden. But I had never sat down to do the arithmetic, until just now. What surprised me […]
Follow the yellow brick road to Ottawa
Here is my theory of Canadian federal politics. We are in Oz, and our political parties are the Tin Man, the Scarecrow and the Cowardly Lion. The Conservatives are the Tin Man. Smart, courageous, but without a moral compass. The Liberals are the Cowardly Lion. Smart, principled, but without the conviction to defend an idea […]
If we knew then what we know now: Comparing 2009Q1 forecasts with 2010Q1 reality
In February 2009, back when columnists were confidently writing stuff like this, I wrote a post with the title "Why forecasters are predicting a short Canadian recession" explaining the narrative behind the consensus forecast. I think it's fair to say that the OMGWTFBBQ!1!!1!!! narrative doesn't look so good now – although I defy you to […]
When spam goes meta
From my inbox: Greetings to you SCAMMED VICTIM/ $500,000 BENEFICIARIES. REF/PAYMENTS CODE: ECB/06654 $500,000 USD. On behalf of the Obama's Foundation and UNITED NATIONS, we wish to notify you as a beneficiary of $500,000 USD in compensation of scam victims.This is to bring to your notice that we are delegated from the Obama's Foundation and […]
Three thoughts on the Budget
None very insightful, but for what they are worth:
Mr Micawber’s budget
This is not a serious policy document. There are a couple of good ideas (eg, eliminating tariffs on machinery imports), but what we were looking for was an indication of how the deficit was going to be dealt with, even if those measures didn't take effect this year. What we got was Micawbernomics: make incredibly […]
Live-tweeting the federal budget
So I opened up a twitter account yesterday – you may have noticed the button at the bottom of the sidebar at right. It's something of an experiment, and I'll probably just use it for things that I can't work up to a fully-fledged blog post. There are a lot of those. Today I used […]
The Debt of Strangers
Does this question make sense: "Is debt too high?"? It certainly makes sense for me to ask whether my debt is too high. Should I try to earn more income, reduce my consumption, or sell off some assets? And if a friend asks me whether his debt is too high, I could offer him advice […]
What measures should be in the federal budget?
The federal government brings down its budget on Thursday. From what I can gather from various media stories, the word is that it'll be pretty thin. The two-year stimulus package announced last year will continue as planned, and no new tax measures are expected. This thread asks the question: what would you like to see […]
Canada’s recovery is 30%-40% complete
Today's GDP release was a pleasant surprise: an annualised growth rate of 5.0% is more than we were expecting. The recovery is well underway, and depending on the measure you look at, something between 30% and 40% of the economic losses generated by the recession have been recovered.
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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