Why making the 2011 census long form voluntary is a bad idea

Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks that the idea of sending out a voluntary long form in next year's census is a bad idea. Since this seems to be a file to which I will be returning from time to time, here are a couple of points to consider:

1) Yes, it is a big deal. If response rates vary with the income and education levels, then you won't have a random sample of income and education levels. There is a rather large amount of evidence in the sampling design literature documenting the fact that people with lower levels of education and income have lower response rates, and so these groups will be systematically under-sampled.

Sample selection bias is a recurring problem for virtually all surveys in which participation is not mandatory, and it is possible to correct for it – but only if you know the true distribution of the underlying distribution. For example, if you know that those in poverty are (say) 10% of the population and only 5% of your sample, you can re-weight your observations to make the sample representative. But in order to do this, you need to know that the 'true' proportion is in fact 10%. Usually, the source for this sort of information is the census. But if the census itself suffers from selection bias, there's no easy way to fix it.

2) Concerns about privacy are overstated. Anyone who has had dealings with Statistics Canada will tell you that they are ferociously – and at times irritatingly – determined to protect the privacy of those whose information is stored in their data bases. Researchers never see the data. They are obliged to send their estimation codes to StatsCan professionals, who run the programs and return the output to the researcher. That goes for all other non-StatsCan government employees as well.

And if the question requires looking at a subsample that is so small that there's a chance that individual respondents could be identified, then the request is refused.

3) The implications are more wide-ranging than you might think. According to popular cliché, we are evolving towards a 'knowledge economy' – and knowledge requires data.  And the usefulness of much of these data depends crucially on the anchor of a reliable census. Here is an incomplete list of people who need this information:

  • Investors. Suppose you're planning to start a business somewhere, and a crucial factor is a supply of well-educated workers.
  • Marketers. Yes, it's all good fun to mock marketers, but if they can't identify what will sell, people lose their jobs.
  • Policy-makers at all levels of government. How do we know if a school's poor performance can be explained by socio-economic factors if we don't have reliable data for income and education levels?
  • Academic researchers. 'Nuff said.

The federal government made this move without consulting the people who use census data. It should reconsider and reverse its decision.

52 comments

  1. dantheas's avatar

    Does anyone have actual, concrete proof of just how many Canadians refuse to complete the long form census/write letters to complain/submit fake answers? I have personally never heard anyone talk about it, while I have heard everyone talk about health care, taxes, and seal hunting.
    The issue is whether to make the long form mandatory. Statistically, it’s pretty clear that a voluntary long form will skew the responses much worse than a mandatory long form, especially since the word “mandatory” allows the census taker to start from a position of authority, which means people filling out the forms are more liable to take it seriously. Of course, in practice no one will be jailed for not completing a census, however “mandatory” it may be.
    So, either abolish the long form altogether (which no one is proposing) or keep it mandatory.
    @Acroyear: “Researchers however, can access other sources of research, or do their own, targeted research for whatever it is they need, using grants from the government, which I have no issue with.”

    Gathering accurate data is always the most difficult part of research. Forcing researchers to do this on their own without the legitimacy of government, and individually putting in the huge labour costs involved in correcting survey biases, is a terrible use of grant funding. It would be like trying to build cars without standard parts. Everything would be ten times slower and break ten times more often.

  2. Mr Williams's avatar
    Mr Williams · · Reply

    Census data is used by the Globalist bankers, to give them all the information they need to profile you for the enslavement you are currently experiencing without even knowing about it. In no way shape or form is our Federal government entitled to this information.I will never fill out a census, nor will most of my friends up here in Powell River, According to newly de-clasified information, all the information on Census forms is givin directly to the N.S.A. and Home Land Security. ( this is not a th…eory, its a fact) Hitler, Mao, Stalin, and Ceaser were also very into the census Idea. If you are getting your info from the government or media about what they need a census for, you are being distracted from the truth.
    In no way shape or form should our federal government be givin that information, it is none of thier business, It is why our fore fathers came here in the first place. How could you not know that? The more we allow the feds to involve themselves with the individual, the more they will keep growing out of control, into a giant entitiy that controlls every aspect of our lives.
    Perhaps a good place to start would be to investigate why your Drivers Licence and or any ID certificate has your name in all capital letters. When you are born, and you agree to having a birth certificate, our government erases your existance as a natural human and creates a corporation in your name that is owned by the money printers we are indebt to . As long as you claim natural person status, you are not required to follow any law that falls under the catagory of statutes, rules, or regulations. That includes filling out paperwork that includes ALL the very personal information that our horribly corrupted government should never have access to. 😉
    There has never been mandatory census, as long as you know enough to say you are the natural person, and not the corporation. The census collector will fuck right off. They are only intrested in people living in the fake corprate society. I…n the real world, nothing is illegal except for causing harm to another person or thier property. As long as you tell the judge that you are the natural Craig and he is acting as judge not banker. You could get caught drinking and driving, smoking crack, with no insurance or a licence and you wont even get a slap on the wrist.
    Learn your rights, and dont fill out the census, or the jokes on you.

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