Monthly Archives: October 2010
Trick or Treating, reciprocity and social capital
I grew up in Hillsville. Trick-or-treating was exciting – and exhausting. Just a few treks up long, steep driveways were enough to tire out little legs. There are fewer trick-or-treaters in Hillsville these days. There's a newer suburb, just 10 minutes drive away, that has ideal trick-or-treating demographics: above average household incomes, children living in […]
Manufacturing Profit Margins, The Canadian Dollar and GDP Growth
Two weeks ago Rob Gilroy posted some fascinating research by National Bank on the profit margins of various manufacturing industries and how they would be affected by a 5% appreciation of the Canadian dollar: Note that profit margin reduction differs between manufacturing industries. This is due to the different exporting profiles of different industries (the […]
CIBC World Markets Predicts 93 Cent Dollar
From CTV News: CIBC World Markets expects the Canadian dollar to sink to about 93 cents (U.S.) this winter. I decided to see what CIBC World Markets were predicting for the price of oil this winter. I couldn't find a winter prediction, but did find their prediction for 2011 of $75. Plug $75 into MERT […]
A preliminary estimate for Canadian 2010Q3 GDP growth
The August 2010 GDP numbers have been released (increase of 0.3% over July), so It's time once again to update my series of posts (most recent: 2010Q2) in which I try to take the GDP numbers from the first two months of a given quarter, mix them with the LFS numbers from the third month, […]
Confessions of a central planner
"So Nick, how come a free-market economist like you is acting like a central planner?" I heard that a lot when I was an associate dean. Sometimes it was said to tease me. Sometimes out of genuine annoyance. I had my reply ready. "There are three ways to allocate resources. The market is best; soviet […]
It pays to be hot (sometimes)
There are some research questions you have to answer simply because the data is there: the salaries of Ontario university professors are published on the public sector salary disclosure website, research output is listed on Econlit, university websites and calendars list a person's rank – there are even databases that list every doctoral thesis published, […]
Is The Canadian Dollar Over or Undervalued? It’s Time for a MERT Update
It has been about 6 months since we last looked at MERT - my toy for examining the relationship between oil prices, interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar (relative to the greenback). It turns out that in 2010 the toy has done a very good job at 'predicting' the value of the Canadian dollar, […]
Why readers believe this blog is too left wing — or too right wing or too…
When Stephen Gordon's recent post on heating costs was reprinted in the National Post's Full Comment section, a few commentators were somewhat hostile: "What a surprise that a professor from Quebec believes we should take even more from 'the rich' and give to 'the poor.'" "If this socialist extremist had his way…" My recent post […]
A self-contradictory communications strategy
Does loosening monetary policy mean lower or higher nominal interest rates? An article in today's Financial Times (H/T Brad DeLong) is a good illustration of the problems that arise when central banks frame monetary policy as a (conditional) time-path for nominal interest rates.
Did War Based Fiscal Stimulus End the Great Depression?
Paul Krugman believes it is a slam dunk. It's probably a bad idea to argue with a Nobel prize winner, but my understanding was the science was not quite as settled on that point as Prof. Krugman would have us believe. Below the fold I'll cite a few pieces of research on the topic.
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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