Fiscal Policy, the Environment, and How Not to Solve Policy Problems

Canada and by extension the Canadian government faces a number of challenges. There are two in particular I find fascinating:

  1. A shortfall in federal government revenue to finance policy changes. Some of us are advocating corporate tax cuts.  Some advocate pharmacare programs and early childhood education initiatives, while others advocate eliminating the deficit as quickly as possible.  Plus we need stadiums – lots and lots of stadiums.  But where will the money come from? We can't both raise and lower corporate income taxes at the same time. Raising personal income taxes will lead to slower economic growth (relative to raising other taxes) and raising payroll taxes on firms would deter hiring. Economically speaking raising the GST would make the most sense, but we're told it's politically infeasible since when you raise the GST you raise taxes with Hitler (or something like that). So where is the money going to come from?
  2. We need to reduce various types of emissions. Whether it be toxic (and often carcinogenic) pollutants from London, Ontario or greenhouse gases linked to anthropogenic climate change there is near universal agreement that we ought to investigate ways to reduce these emissions.  But how to do so in a cost-effective way with minimal economic damage?

You probably see where I'm going with this. The solution is simple – we can use Pigovian taxes or cap-and-trade with auctionable permits to reduce emissions (problem 2) and the revenue can be used to fund the initiatives we like (problem 1).  As a pollution control measure, the solution is rather elegant.  We don't need an army of bureaucrats to try to figure out which emissions can be reduced most cost-effectively.

Sounds great in theory, but would a cap-and-trade system really be a low-cost way to reduce emissions in the "real world"? Fortunately cap-and-trade isn't just some textbook theory – it's been used to great success in North America:

"Cap and trade" harnesses the forces of markets to achieve cost-effective environmental protection. Markets can achieve superior environmental protection by giving businesses both flexibility and a direct financial incentive to find faster, cheaper and more innovative ways to reduce pollution.

Cap and trade was designed, tested and proven here in the United States, as a program within the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The success of this program led The Economist magazine to crown it "probably the greatest green success story of the past decade." (July 6, 2002).

As an aside, I've often wondered if the Clean Air Act's cap-and-trade was almost too successful, in the sense that people seem to have concluded not that "cap and trade does wonders" but "boy, that whole Acid Rain thing was overblown".

Of course, since this policy would be straight forward and effective and help boost government revenues, it has no chance of happening.  As Dan Gardner points out, the Conservatives have decided to take their policy cue not from Arthur Pigou, but rather from Karl Marx:

“Climate change is one of the most serious environmental issues facing the world today,” declared Peter Kent, the new environment minister, in a recent speech before the Economic Club of Canada. Kent didn’t wink when he spoke those words. He didn’t smirk. He was emphatic and, apparently, sincere. The Conservative government “is determined to do our part for the planet,” he said….

“Achieving our objectives requires a systematic approach of regulating GHG emissions sector by sector,” said Peter Kent. Translation: Some bureaucrat in Ottawa will decide who will reduce emissions and how they will do it.

This is old school command-and-control regulation. Order the Vladivostok Power Plant to install a new type of scrubber. Direct the October Revolution Factory to retrofit with pipe insulation of a particular specification. This Kremlin-knows-best approach is what made the Soviet Union such a model of efficient production. Left shoes? We have eight for every person in the Motherland. Right shoes? Maybe in the next Five Year Plan.

And it’s not just inefficient. It also opens the way to abuse, even corruption. Say you’re the boss of People’s Shoe Factory #17 and you really want to screw People’s Shoe Factory #18. You could try to out-produce them. Or you could try to convince the Kremlin that #18 should be subjected to a burdensome new directive that you, naturally, would be exempt from. In the old Moscow, that sort of thing was done with party connections. It’s much easier in Ottawa. Look under “L” for lobbyist. Just be sure to pick one with party connections.

If the Conservatives are uncomfortable with taking policy advice from Arthur Pigou, they could always choose Milton Friedman instead.  From Free to Choose (1980):

Most economists agree that a far better way to control pollution than the present method of specific regulation and supervision is to introduce market discipline by imposing effluent charges.  For example, instead of requiring firms to erect specific kinds of waste disposal plants or to achieve a specified water quality in water discharged into a lake of river, impose a tax of a specified amount per unit of effluent discharged.  That way, the firm would have an incentive to use the cheapest way to keep down the effluent. (pg. 217)

He goes on to add:

Fuel from shale, tar sands, and so on, makes sense if and only if that way to produce energy is cheaper than alternatives – account being taken of all costs. The most effective mechanism to determine whether it is cheaper is the market. If it is cheaper, it will be in the self-interest of private enterprises to exploit these alternatives – provided they reap the benefits and bear the cost…

Private enterprises will bear all the cost only if they are required to pay for environmental damage. The way to do that is to impose effluent charges – not to have one government agency impose arbitrary standards and then set up another to cut through the first's red tape. (pg. 221)

If "have one government agency impose arbitrary standards and then set up another to cut through the first's red tape" isn't an accurate description of the Conservative position on the matter, I don't know what is.

So we can agree the Conservative position on this issue is, well, dumb.  And the Liberal position?

Liberal environment critic Gerard Kennedy said the Harper government’s failure to regulate the oil industry’s emissions has left the sector subject to international criticism and rising concerns among institutional investors.

“It does seem that the government is tethered to the oil sands in a way that even the operators of the oil sands understand is dangerous,” Mr. Kennedy said. “They’re getting international criticism … simply because there isn’t a credible government regulating and setting up the predictable environment from them.

In other words, the Conservative position isn't dumb enough.

I am quite certain the response to this post will be a litany of political reasons why the Liberals and Conservatives cannot propose sensible policies.  I understand but I don't care. My hope is that if enough of us keep advocating sensible public policy it may become popular enough to become politically feasible.  I want to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem.

 

53 comments

  1. Gregory Sokoloff's avatar
    Gregory Sokoloff · · Reply

    Mike, one question I have for advocates of Pigovian taxes to reduce greenhouse gases from transporation: exactly what level would the tax have to be to cause the automotive industry to produce zero emission vehicles? For decades the price of gasoline in Europe has been over twice what it is in North America, and yet Europeans did not develop and market electric or hybrid cars. It is true that Europeans engineered fuel efficient diesel engines, but this path would never have lead to a ZEV. So what level of gas tax would? Ten times the current level? Would this be in the realm of the politically feasible?
    By contrast, blunt force regulations propounded by the state of California, and fought tooth and nail by all sectors of the auto industry, nevertheless have resulted, at least in part, in things like the GM EV1, the Tesla, and the Nissan Leaf.
    There is also a third approach: large scale government investments in research to develop technologies that are critical for a cheap ZEV. For example, if there were breakthroughs in the nano-engineering of the battery, it could completely change the economics of the electric car.
    It is not clear to me that these three approaches are in any way mutually exclusive, and I’m surprised that advocates of one or the other behave as if they are.

  2. Unknown's avatar

    The Conservative government will refuse a carbon tax or a cap and trade system, because that would provide an industrial boost, in Canada, to concerns centered in Ontario (for instance, electric cars, wind turbines, electric power equipment, design and expertise, and, especially, the nuclear power industry), rendering that province’s future job growth more independent of growth in the oil sands industries. This is also why they are intransigent internationally on this issue, and why they are shrinking the box into which AECL may grow, and shrivelling the nuclear industry from an international concern (in a sector poised for growth) to a Canadian rump.
    The greater Ontario’s economic jobs and growth is linked to the western provinces’ growth, the more Ontarians will not want to disappoint the political sympathies of the westerners providing their supper. Keep them lean, hungry, and knowing who their masters are.
    It’s important to note that any hypothesized boost to Ontario from any sort of proper Canadian carbon accounting would not likely come at the economic expense to the Alberta or Saskatchewan. Even oil sands interests have called for a carbon tax (I don’t think insincerely). Their major growth product, oil, for transportation and plastics, has a global market broadly separate from energy from electricity. It is a pet peeve of mine to emphasize this, since many left or centrist commentators assume that Harper, in rejecting any sane policy to account for climate change, is doing the bidding of oil companies. Not so. The simplest explanation of what Harper is doing is to assume he is just doing what is best for Harper.
    A carbon tax or cap and trade regime could greatly affect the internal Canadian political scene. This, rather than economic concerns, is what is driving this issue now. Harper isn’t a Marxist, but he’ll make the trade of the country being worse off, long term, if it improves his personal fortunes today. Just like any run-of-mill controlling autocrat.

  3. Joel Wood's avatar

    Gregory:
    Why would zero emission cars be optimal? The goal of an env tax is to set marginal damages equal to marginal abatement costs, it in no way suggests that the optimal level of emissions is zero. Also, electric cars are usually not absolutely zero emissions. You must take into account the generation of the electricity.
    Chris:
    Do you have evidence that a carbon tax would generate net econ benefits for Ontario? I would think that it would impose serious short term costs on the current Ontario manufacturing industry. Please do not cite FIT subsidized “green” manufacturing and “green jobs” as evidence since many of these projects would not be undertaken under a carbon tax and no FIT program (they would need an excessively high carbon price). Don’t jump to conclusions that a carbon tax would be the end of Alberta. I believe that Pembina estimated that oil sands development has a value/t CO2e over $500.

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