Business cycles are not symmetric; if you flipped the time-series data upside-down the fluctuations would look different. Recessions are usually quick; recoveries are usually slow. And Milton Friedman's "Plucking Model" seems to fit the data: big falls in economic activity are usually followed by big increases; but big increases are not usually followed by big […]

This is an attempt by someone who is not very good at math to understand the alleged "indeterminacy problem" of central banks using market signals of expected inflation to help them target inflation (or whatever). [I used to do rifle shooting at school. "If you can't group you can't shoot". But if you could group, […]