Author Archives: wciecon
Ex post and ex ante comparisons of the Canadian and US employment recessions
Today's LFS release was another piece of welcome news: some 38% of the losses in employment and in hours worked have been recovered. And I think it's time for those who predicted that Canada was not going to implode to take a bow.
What if price-level targeting were already in place?
A popular research topic at the Bank of Canada over the past few years has been price-level targeting: committing to a path for the level of core CPI, not just to its rate of inflation. The idea here is that standard inflation targeting forgets and forgives past deviations from target. But under price level targeting, […]
Economic nationalism is the last refuge of incompetent managers
At one point during the coverage of last Thursday's budget, Allan Gregg suggested that some of the measures – liberalizing the telecoms market, tariff cuts – would bring economic nationalism back to the public agenda (my immediate reaction). And today, Jeffrey Simpson is talking about the perils of the 'branch plant economy'.
When 5.0% GDP growth is better news than 5.9% GDP growth
In 2009Q4, US GDP grew by 5.9% at annual rates; the number was 5.0% in Canada. But our news was much better. Here is a graph of the contributions to GDP growth by expenditure category: US GDP growth would have been only 2.0% without the contribution of the inventory terms (which was itself a deceleration […]
Some simple arithmetic of debt/GDP and population growth
I had always known that a given debt/GDP ratio would be more worrying for a country with declining population than for a country with a growing population. There will be fewer future people to carry the same future burden. But I had never sat down to do the arithmetic, until just now. What surprised me […]
Follow the yellow brick road to Ottawa
Here is my theory of Canadian federal politics. We are in Oz, and our political parties are the Tin Man, the Scarecrow and the Cowardly Lion. The Conservatives are the Tin Man. Smart, courageous, but without a moral compass. The Liberals are the Cowardly Lion. Smart, principled, but without the conviction to defend an idea […]
If we knew then what we know now: Comparing 2009Q1 forecasts with 2010Q1 reality
In February 2009, back when columnists were confidently writing stuff like this, I wrote a post with the title "Why forecasters are predicting a short Canadian recession" explaining the narrative behind the consensus forecast. I think it's fair to say that the OMGWTFBBQ!1!!1!!! narrative doesn't look so good now – although I defy you to […]
When spam goes meta
From my inbox: Greetings to you SCAMMED VICTIM/ $500,000 BENEFICIARIES. REF/PAYMENTS CODE: ECB/06654 $500,000 USD. On behalf of the Obama's Foundation and UNITED NATIONS, we wish to notify you as a beneficiary of $500,000 USD in compensation of scam victims.This is to bring to your notice that we are delegated from the Obama's Foundation and […]
Three thoughts on the Budget
None very insightful, but for what they are worth:
Mr Micawber’s budget
This is not a serious policy document. There are a couple of good ideas (eg, eliminating tariffs on machinery imports), but what we were looking for was an indication of how the deficit was going to be dealt with, even if those measures didn't take effect this year. What we got was Micawbernomics: make incredibly […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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