Author Archives: wciecon
In which the Conference Board of Canada confuses good news with bad
The Conference Board has just released a report entitled "CanCompete: Re-Energizing Canada’s International Trade—Strategies for Post-Recession Success," available here. In its summary of recent trade patterns for Canada, it notes that Canadian exports grew because these goods increased in value rather than because Canada sold more goods and services abroad. This is a true and […]
Long-term unemployment in Canada and the US
Last September, I wrote this, in a post where I made graphs comparing the number of long-term unemployed workers in Canada and the US: The more I look at the US, the more I see unpleasant parallels to Canada's experience of the 1990's – what Pierre Fortin called The Great Canadian Slump. Even after we […]
On the history of the federal government’s structural balance
In the report it released last month, the Parliamentary Budget Office provided estimates and projections for the federal government's structural balance – that is, with the effects of the business cycle stripped out. This is always a tricky business, but their historical numbers resemble those produced by the Department of Finance (Figure 4-1), and the […]
The gendered recession
Yesterday's LFS numbers were better than a kick in the head with a frozen boot: just under one-third of the losses inflicted by the recession on the labour market have been recovered. But there's something else that happened in the January release. Many have already noted that employment losses among men were more severe than […]
Demographic change isn’t a long-term problem any more
It's now a short-term problem. I spent the morning doing interviews on CBC radio morning shows in Corner Brook, Victoria and nine places in between. (For those of you who caught it, yes, I really do speak that quickly. I try to slow down when I'm on the air, but sometimes I forget.) One of […]
Strategy space and monetary policy
Or, "Why central banks should stop talking about interest rates". Game theorists know that a change in the "strategy space" can change the equilibrium of a game. The classic example, now over a century old, is the difference between the Cournot-Nash equilibrium and the Bertrand-Nash equilibrium in oligopoly theory.
Some comments on the Liberal childcare proposals
Michael Ignatieff is honouring the ancient Liberal tradition (it goes back to at least Jean Chrétien's 1993 Red Book) of promising of a national childcare program. Here is an extract from an e-mail I received from an academic whose research touches on this area. (I've added a few footnotes and links for the parts where […]
In which Maclean’s confuses good news with bad
This week's Maclean's has yet another installment in its series of apocalyptic economics cover stories (not yet on line, as far as I can tell updated: now available here). One of the points it makes is that where households in other countries are reducing their debt loads, Canadians are borrowing and spending more. I'm having […]
When should the Bank of Canada raise interest rates?
The strong-ish November GDP number has revived the debate about when the Bank of Canada will start increasing its target for the overnight rate. On one hand, we have this: Recovery points to summer rate hike: With the North American economy growing significantly faster than expected at the end of 2009, and with mounting evidence […]
A question that business journalists might do well to ask
I have a question that I wish some enterprising business journalist would ask on a regular basis. When various private sector institutions produce their forecasts, could you please ask where those numbers came from? And perhaps ask for some error bands? Because it is my understanding that private sector forecasts are not produced by teams […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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