Author Archives: wciecon
A preliminary estimate for Canadian 2009Q2 GDP growth
Three months ago, I tried to construct an advance estimate for 2009Q1 GDP growth, based on the GDP releases for the first two months and the LFS release for the third month. Here is what I came up with: The mean of [the predictive density] is -6.9%, and its standard deviation is 0.5%; the interquartile […]
Canadian house prices bounce back
I just wanted to add some graphs to Nick's post. Here is the Canadian Teranet-National Bank price index plotted against the Case-Shiller US indices: And here is the breakdown by city. Once again, I'm going to take this occasion to mock the "Canada is tracking the US experience, with a lag of about two years" […]
The “Cripes!” growth model
I first heard about this growth model back in the 1980's, applied to management consulting firms. Only the expletive wasn't "Cripes!". It's a 2-stage growth model: Stage 1: "Cripes! We've got all these consultants on the payroll! How are we ever going to pay for them all? Better get some more contracts." Stage 2: "Cripes! […]
The optimal number of things to think about
I think our minds (brains, whatever) are like a multi-product firm. We have to decide how many things to think about — how many different products to produce. We don't think about just one thing all the time; but we don't think about an infinite number of things either. There must be fixed costs of […]
The house price bounce is (mostly) real – for now
I have been checking almost daily for the Teranet-National Bank May house price data, and now it's out. Their national composite price index increased 0.72% from April to May. This confirms the less accurate and more anecdotal data we've been hearing about the Canadian housing market improving this Summer.
Income = Expenditure, and debt
Nothing new here. Just another kick at the debt can. And basic national income accounting.
Risks to Canadian recovery
The Bank of Canada says it believes the recession has ended. Maybe they are right; I haven't checked, but I get the impression that their forecasting has been better than most over the last year. This doesn't mean that output and employment will immediately return to normal, of course. But it does mean, if they […]
We are born with a short position in housing
Felix Salmon has a lovely metaphor that helps me articulate something I've been wanting to say about the risk of buying a house: "In that sense buying a house isn’t an investment, so much as it’s a way of permanently covering your built-in short position when it comes to the shelter market."
“We were there for GM and Chrysler. Why not for Nortel?”
That's the title of Jeffrey Simpson's column in today's Globe and Mail. The realpolitik answer to that question bores me to tears, but I can think of a sensible answer based on economics. Whether or not this answer has anything to do with the the real reason for this choice is an exercise that I […]
Why the Bank of Canada should ‘rise’ interest rates
I don't want tighter monetary policy; I want looser. I don't want the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, but I do want the Bank to do something that would cause it to want interest rates to rise. I want it to buy real assets. We have become so accustomed to thinking about monetary […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
Recent Comments