Category Canadian economy
Carney’s Departure: The Bigger Picture
Well, it has been an exciting couple of days in Canada on the policy side given the juxtaposition of the following news: 1) the federal by-election results suggest a more competitive political environment for the federal Conservatives in the stronghold of Alberta 2) the world-class City of Toronto is deposing its Mayor over a conflict […]
Mark Carney to the Bank of England
You might think I have a lot to say about this. (A top UK newspaper just emailed asking me to write something.) I don't. I have very little to say. And what I do have to say is fairly obvious. I think Britain needs him more than Canada does, because the British economy is in […]
Why Harper is Not Going to Halifax
The provincial premiers are meeting on the economy in Halifax today and tomorrow and Prime Minister Harper will not be joining them. Several of them have offered up expressions of surprise and disappointment and have lamented the absence of the Prime Minister. The operatic drama that often characterizes exchanges at federal-provincial meetings has been absent […]
Growing Ontario One Report at a Time
The Conference Board of Canada has chimed in on what ails Ontario and how to get it moving in a recently released report titled Needed: A Comprehensive Growth Strategy for Ontario. The report argues that after rebounding from the 2008-09 recession, Ontario has slipped into tepid growth of around 2 percent annually and needs a […]
One of These Countries is Not Like the Others
Given that the Finance Minister is presenting the Federal Fiscal Update today in Fredericton, it is instructive to review some fiscal comparisons right out of the release of the 2012 Federal Fiscal Reference Tables (which in turn used the OECD Economic Outlook May 2012 numbers for the international comparison). Figure 1 plots the ratio of […]
Forward guidance, borrowing degrees of freedom, and the inflation target horizon
This is something I do not understand very well. I'm writing this to try to help me think about it more clearly. Eight times a year, at each Fixed Announcement Date, the Bank of Canada does two things: it announces a target for the overnight rate until the next FAD; it provides some "forward guidance" […]
Provincial Debt Update
The 2012 Federal Fiscal Reference tables are out and the information on provincial net debt is interesting especially when the growth of net debt is considered.
You can’t estimate Optimal Currency Areas that way
The better the Bank of Canada is doing its job, the more it will appear that the Bank of Canada should be broken in two. The worse the ECB does its job, the more it will appear that the Eurozone is an Optimal Currency Area. If central banks were even slightly more competent than random […]
Forecasting Deficits Ontario Style
One of my most piercing electoral memories is the 1993 federal election debate that featured then Prime Minister Kim Campbell, Jean Chretien, Audrey McLaughlin, Preston Manning and Lucien Bouchard. The part that always sticks in my mind is Lucien Bouchard’s persistent questioning of Campbell with respect to the size of the deficit in the 1993 […]
Is Ontario Breaking the “Golden Rule”?
Ontario’s government is now engaged in public sector restraint and reform tackling its doctors and teachers in an effort to wrestle down its 15 billion dollar deficit. Soon it will be turning its attention to universities. Indeed, work is already underway on an ambitious plan to reform the university sector which according to reports on […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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