Category Canadian economy
NAFTA – The “Worst” Trade Deal Ever
With time on my hands over the last week of the holiday season, I spent a bit more time than usual surfing news channels and watched a press conference by U.S. President Donald Trump in which among other things he again reiterated how the United States had been hard done by NAFTA and that it […]
Australian Economic Growth in Longer Term Perspective
A recent issue of The Economist highlighted the stellar economic performance of Australia – or as it was termed, “The Wonder Down Under” – arguing its economy is most arguably the most successful in the rich world. Australia has apparently not seen a recession for 27 years, seen its median income has grown four times […]
Tracking the Bank of Canada’s staff projections through the 2008-9 recession
The Bank of Canada has released an archive of the staff projections prepared for the Governing Council for the quarterly Monetary Policy Reports. There's a five year lag, so the most recent set of projections are the ones prepared in 2013Q4. While these projections don't answer the question "What was the Governing Council thinking?", it […]
Why do we care about the labour share of income?
And by 'we', I mean 'Canadians'. A lot has been said and written about the decline in the labour share of income, usually calculated as total employee compensation divided by nominal GDP. This decline is generally regarded as a negative development: the reduction in the share of income going to workers is interpreted as a […]
Military Spending in the G7: A Quick Post NATO Summit Comparison
Well, the Disruptor-in-Chief, US President Donald Trump is at it again. At today’s NATO summit he demanded that the members of NATO need to quickly increase their defence spending not only to meet the committed target of 2 percent of GDP but to also double their commitments to 4 percent of GDP. Needless to say, […]
Project Link update
I've just updated Project Link, my attempt to piece together the bits and pieces of published Statistics Canada data into a coherent history of the post-war Canadian economy. (The introductory post is here, and a post on the first update is here.) Here are the main elements: Incorporating Statistics Canada's long-awaited publication of its expenditure […]
Gross Domestic Income in Canada, 1947-2018
The latest update of Project Link includes estimates for national accounts income measures: Gross National Income (formerly known as Gross National Product), Net National Income, compensation of employees, and disposable income, all going back to 1947Q1. I've also added Gross Domestic Income. GDI is a fairly recent arrival in the national accounts, and it takes […]
Addressing Ontario’s Fiscal Challenges
While 2017-18 saw a surplus of $642 million after years of deficits, the 2018-19 Ontario budget now projects a deficit of $6.7 billion and a net provincial debt of $325 billion with deficits projected to continue for five years afterwards. If one considers the recent report of the Auditor-General, then Ontario’s deficit may be even […]
Natural Resources, Living Standards and Inequality
Kevin Milligan had an op-ed in the Globe and Mail a few days ago drawing the link between natural resource development, middle class incomes and inequality. The point essentially was: “Without income derived from the resource boom, Canadian inequality and the well-being of the Canadian middle class would be much worse than we’ve experienced.” The […]
Another Picture That Will Define Ontario Politics for the Next Four Years
Ontario is getting a Throne Speech this week and a budget next week and these events will set the stage for the June election. In her recent post, Frances drew attention to the province's public finances via the public sector wage bill and the public-private sector wage differential and that cutting the public sector wage […]
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