Category Canadian economy
Taxation in Canada – Part I: What Are the Purposes of Taxation?
This is the first in a series of posts that will examine the tax system in Canada, from an economist’s point of view. If we better understand how the tax system works, we can find ways to improve it. It turns out that there are a number of ways the Canadian tax system can be […]
Some simple arithmetic of debt/GDP and population growth
I had always known that a given debt/GDP ratio would be more worrying for a country with declining population than for a country with a growing population. There will be fewer future people to carry the same future burden. But I had never sat down to do the arithmetic, until just now. What surprised me […]
Three thoughts on the Budget
None very insightful, but for what they are worth:
Canada’s recovery is 30%-40% complete
Today's GDP release was a pleasant surprise: an annualised growth rate of 5.0% is more than we were expecting. The recovery is well underway, and depending on the measure you look at, something between 30% and 40% of the economic losses generated by the recession have been recovered.
Shouldn’t Taylor Rules include Fiscal Policy? The Fiscal exit strategy.
Most economists believe that for a given path of nominal interest rates chosen by the central bank, a looser fiscal policy (higher deficits, through lower taxes and/or higher spending) will cause higher Aggregate Demand, and therefore higher real output and/or inflation. Therefore, if a central bank is choosing a path for nominal interest rates in […]
Demographic change isn’t a long-term problem any more
It's now a short-term problem. I spent the morning doing interviews on CBC radio morning shows in Corner Brook, Victoria and nine places in between. (For those of you who caught it, yes, I really do speak that quickly. I try to slow down when I'm on the air, but sometimes I forget.) One of […]
A preliminary estimate for Canadian 2009Q4 GDP growth
This is an update to my series of posts (2009Q1, 2009Q2, 2009Q3) that uses Statistics Canada's estimates for monthly GDP estimates (available for the first two months of the previous quarter) and the LFS data for the last month of the quarter to provide an estimate for GDP growth in the previous quarter. Statistics Canada […]
“Dispelling Canadian myths about foreign direct investment”
That's the title of a nice survey for the Institute for Research on Public Policy by Walid Hejazi, available here. After being a hot-button topic for the past half-century or so (note to non-Canadians: yes, really), FDI has accumulated a thick crust of myths that could do with some dispelling: The debate around foreign direct […]
The value of unfunded pension liabilities, and interest rates
The C.D. Howe Institute has released a study (pdf) on Federal government pensions, written by Alexandre Laurin and Bill Robson. The bottom line (and what hit the headlines) is that the value of the unfunded liabilities is $58 billion higher than recorded in the public accounts. So the national debt is $58 billion higher than […]
What is a “structural” deficit?
Macroeconomists like to divide an actual deficit into two components: a cyclical deficit and a structural deficit. It reflects their distinction between automatic stabilisers and discretionary fiscal policy. I don't think that distinction is as clear and useful as macroeconomists think it is. And in ordinary language a "structural" deficit is one that is hard […]
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