Category Canadian economy
Forecasting the Federal Deficit
I wanted to figure out what the federal budget deficit would look like when Canada eventually recovers from the recession. So I did a very crude back-of-the-envelope calculation. Then I looked at the Parliamentary Budget Office's own forecast (pdf). The PBO forecast is more pessimistic than mine. I'm still trying to figure out why.
A policy agenda for every horizon
I think we've seen enough of retrospectives on the past year and decade; it's time to reflect upon the future. So here are some things that we're going to have to think about, organised by time horizon.
An unremarkable decade
There's been a certain amount of commentary on the 'lost decade' in the US: zero growth in employment, and the S&P500 is in negative territory. But Canada is not the US: the 2000's (I can't bring myself to use any of the terms I've seen used for the most recent decade) was fairly ordinary when […]
Canada’s economic statistic of the decade
Mike Mandel offers four candidates for the 'Economic Statistic of the Decade' over here, using these criteria: First, we want to reward the economic statistic that best reflects the decade (both the good and the bad). Second, we want to recognize the economic statistic that turned in a surprising performance–that is, back in 2000, if […]
Canadian Economic Forecasts 2010. Make yours now!
Continuing the ancient (well, one year old) tradition of this blog, I am inviting all readers to make their Canadian economic forecasts for 2010.
Canadian Economic Forecasts: 2009 revisited.
Happy New Year everyone! Last January we made forecasts for 2009. It's time to check how well we did. (I'm going to do a separate post for 2010 forecasts).
Productivity: The demographic tipping-point
Real, per-capita GDP growth has averaged about 1.7% in Canada over the past 30 years – where has it come from? A less-than-exhaustive but more-than-cursory examination of the data suggests the following breakdown: Source Contribution Technical progress: 0.9% Capital deepening: 0.5% Decrease in hours worked per week: -0.2% Increase in employment rate: 0.25% Increase in […]
Greece, the Eurozone, and Canada
I have been following the story about Greece. Like some other Eurozone countries, Greece has high deficit/GDP and debt/GDP ratios. Unlike Canada, but like Canadian provinces, Greece cannot print money. Eurozone countries are like Canadian provinces, as I argued in here back in January. But the Eurozone, unlike Canada, lacks a federal fiscal authority. The […]
Damage report
Several recent items have been brought to my attention, providing additional confirmation – if any was needed – that the recession is over: Last Friday's Labour Force Survey for November (more below); Today's release for building permits in October; and Garth Turner has stopped selling survivalist merchandise. It's time to assess the damage.
When did Canada’s recession end? A WCI poll
Canada doesn’t have a counterpart to the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, so we don’t have a reference set of dates for previous business cycles. I’m pretty sure that most analysts would agree that the most recent expansion hit its peak in October of 2008, but picking a trough looks less obvious. My understanding of […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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