Category Canadian economy
The economic impact of canoeing
Seeing the path on the rocks worn by millions of passing feet on an old portage just upstream of Ottawa reminds you that what is now a short detour off a recreational walking trail was once the trans-Canada highway. Canoes once had a very large economic impact in Canada. Now they have very little.
Too much household debt? Again.
As far as I can tell, the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review (pdf) has basically got it right. At least in the way it is looking at household debt. Provided you ignore the aggregate numbers that make the headlines, and focus on the disaggregated numbers instead.
Talking down the Loonie?
The Loonie (Canadian dollar) has appreciated against the US dollar recently. The Bank of Canada expressed its concern in Thursday's Announcement. "In recent weeks, financial conditions and commodity prices have improved significantly, and consumer and business confidence have recovered modestly. If the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the Canadian dollar (which reflects a combination of higher […]
Is fiscal conservatism about deficits or debt?
I was on CPAC Sunday evening, on a roundtable with two other economists: David MacDonald (who coordinated the alternative budget for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives); and Glen Hodgson (Chief Economist for the Conference Board). [You can watch it here – SG.] The topic was Canada's projected $50 billion federal deficit; should we be […]
A $50 billion deficit is really a $25 billion deficit
If the government runs a deficit, it means you have to increase taxes or cut government spending sometime in the future, right? Well no, that's not exactly right.
Zero (effectively, finally); What Next for the Bank of Canada?
So, the Bank of Canada has finally cut the overnight rate target to 0.25%, which is as low as it feels technically able to go, so is effectively zero, by its reckoning. I'm not going to discuss those technical issues on the problems with 0.00% vs. 0.25%, because it's not my comparative advantage. But this […]
Is a US recovery a necessary condition for a Canadian recovery?
If you squint and hold your head at just the right angle, it is possible to persuade yourself that the US economy has reached at least a point of inflection: the most recent news about housing, auto sales and initial unemployment claims are less bad than what we've become used to seeing. But even if […]
The Quebec provincial budget: Live-blogging on tape delay
I'm off to the media lockup for today's budget; I'll be helping out with the CBC radio (English) budget special. You can listen here; it starts at 4:00 pm, EDT. I won't have internet access, but I'll take notes and post them when I do. 6:27: I'm free! Free! The day's events are documented below […]
Canada is no longer a net debtor country
Given our history of wringing our hands about Foreigners Owning Canadian Assets, I'm a bit surprised that this story hasn't yet been picked up on the news sites I watch: Canada's net international investment position: Following a trend to reduced net foreign debt since the mid-1990s, Canada recorded a net asset position of $13.5 billion in the […]
GDP, GDI, terms of trade and why Canada is in a recession: It’s all about the beer and pizza
The Parliamentary Budget Office has released a report (pdf – h/t to Kady O'Malley) that makes note of the distinction between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI), and shows that by the latter measure, the fourth quarter of 2008 was even more dreadful than the GDP numbers that made all the headlines. […]
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