Category Canadian economy
Conflicting signals on the state of Canada’s housing market
Something we've been looking for is evidence of an eventual decline in the Canadian housing market. Today, StatsCan announced that new housing prices fell in October. Also today, the CMHC announced that rental vacancy rates were down and that average rents were up from October of last year. A softening of housing prices is to […]
Why are forecasters predicting a mild recession for Canada?
Shock Minus Control notes that Canadian forecasters in both the public and private sector are predicting a short, mild recession and he provides a good graph that puts these forecasts in historical perspective. In addition, IMF and OECD forecasts for Canada are more optimistic than for most of the other developed countries. But how and why can […]
By Tuesday Morning, any proposed 0% Inflation Target will be dead
Before the financial crisis came along, the main question of Canadian monetary policy was whether to revise the Bank of Canada's 2% inflation target. Should the Bank target a lower inflation rate, like 1%, or even 0% inflation? Or should the Bank switch to a target path for the price level?
The Detroit Three are asking $7.2b from Canadian governments. What will it buy?
Car firms seek at least $6b. The maximum in the story is 3.6 + 2.0 + 1.6 = 7.2b, and we can all be sure that they'll be back for more. According to the September SEPH data, there were 122k people employed in the motor vehicle parts and manufacturing sectors. The disaster we're trying to […]
Headline juxtaposition du jour: Canadian auto sector edition
Two items on my google news page: GM to lay off 700 more workers in Oshawa: General Motors of Canada Ltd. is laying off 700 more workers at its Oshawa, Ont., operations, the Canadian Auto Workers union said Friday. The layoffs at the car plant will take place in February. Further down: Toyota opens second factory […]
October may have been the peak. Now what?
An ugly LFS report: employment fell by 71,000 – the sort of report we haven't seen since the last time we were in recession. And no commodities boom is going to come save us this time. It's time to do something - but not just anything. The cutbacks in the Harper government's economic update were clearly wrong-headed, […]
The Bank of Canada’s Assets
When I was writing my last post, on commercial and central bank solvency , I wasn't sure whether it was worth posting, because maybe everybody already knew this stuff. But I decided to post it anyway. Now I'm glad I did. I got some good comments from JKH, which opened up a new avenue to […]
Does Canada need a Fiscal Stimulus? – Discuss
My own view, for what it's worth, is that Canada does not need a fiscal stimulus right now, but there's a possibility it might need one soon, so the government should get everything ready to introduce one as quickly as possible, but not pull the trigger quite yet. My preferred fiscal stimulus would be a […]
Shooting Bears: Ammunition and Central Banks
[ Statistics Canada just announced the seasonally adjusted CPI fell by 0.5% from September to October. And it wasn’t just gas prices. Core was down too (not seasonally adjusted). That’s deflation (on a monthly basis).] Metaphors are like models, only with unclear responsibilities. Can the Bank of Canada (or the Fed, if you like) […]
If only Wilfrid Laurier had won the 1911 election
Much discussion in the past few days and weeks about the wisdom of throwing public money at the Detroit Three (when did they stop being the Big Three?). I'm in the camp of those who don't like the idea, but I'm not going to be a zealot about it just now. Given where we are […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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