Category Canadian economy
Are Canadian houses over-priced? A revised estimate
Stackelberg Follower notes that housing prices in Canada continue to not crash. Should we expect them to? Nick Rowe revisits some recent evidence and passes this along: [I thank Tsur Somerville for emailed comments on a previous draft of this Note] An August 2008 paper by Tsur Somerville and Kitson Swann of the Sauder School […]
The turning point is now about four months late
Once again, two very separate pieces of economic news in yesterday's employment releases for October: US employment declined by 2.5% at annual rates from September (which was not a good month for US employment), and Canadian employment rose by 0.7% at annual rates from September (which saw record employment gains). We're moving into uncharted territory […]
“Canada is not the United States” – Auto sales edition
Yet another horrible month for auto sales in the US: US auto sales 'unsustainably weak': General Motors Corp.'s October U.S. sales plunged 45 per cent, and Ford Motor Co.'s and Chrysler LLC's weren't far behind, as low consumer confidence and tight credit combined to bring the industry's sales to an “unsustainably weak level” that is […]
The Canadian business cycle mesa of 2008
The August 2008 GDP numbers are out, and real output continued its path sideways. As in these posts, all variables in the graphs that follow are logged and re-scaled to zero at the peaks of the expansions: 1981:04, 1990:03, 2000:12 and (provisionally) 2007:11. They are then multiplied by 100, so that they can be interpreted […]
Life in the time of six sigma
Standard deviation of daily per cent changes in the CAD-USD exchange rate since the CAD was allowed to float in June, 1970: 0.33. Number of days in which daily per cent changes exceeded six standard deviations since June 1970: 6. Number of days in which daily per cent changes exceeded six standard deviations since September […]
Commodity prices and the Canadian economy
The story of the Canadian economy since 2002 is one of an improvement in the terms of trade created by a surge in commodity prices. As commodity prices rose, the CAD appreciated and the real buying power of Canadian incomes increased. But in the past few weeks, much of this has been reversed. The possibility […]
What should Canadian governments be doing right now?
My answer would be: nothing. Right now, the Bank of Canada is doing the grunt work of trying to keep financial markets from drying up, and there's not a lot that governments can do to help. And if the Bank were trying to provide monetary stimulus on top of all that, it could hardly do […]
A $10b deficit isn’t what it used to be
There are several reports to the effect that the federal govt may run a deficit on the order of $10b in FY 2009-10. When the deficit went to $10b back in 1977-78, it was 5% of GDP. Thirty years later, $10b is something like 0.6% of GDP. Let's all not panic, shall we?
On the causes of an eventual Canadian recession
I was planning on writing this post a bit later, but since several good points have already been made in the comments over here, I'm going to start a discussion on the mechanics of how the Canadian economy might go into recession in the next few months. The decline in exports to the US. About […]
So where were we?
Now that it's been decided who will form the government, it's time to look at the problems facing it and what it can and should do about them. The next few posts will be data-oriented, trying to provide some background. Today, I'm going to look at the state of the labour market. In the US, […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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