Category Econometrics
Statistics Canada’s Attention Deficit Disorder
This happens all the time: With the release of November 2013 data, Statistics Canada converted the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) series to 2010=100, with 2010 as the base year. These indexes have also been updated using a weighting pattern based on the 2010 production values of Canadian manufacturers. At the same time, the classification […]
Random thoughts on house prices
First random thought: a person who was very ignorant about future house prices would nevertheless be almost certain that real (inflation-adjusted) house prices will be lower than today at some time in the future. If we want a null hypothesis about house prices, I think the best null hypothesis would be that the log of […]
Contrasting trends in Canadian and US median incomes
This is a graph of real Canadian median family incomes: What do you think the relevant trend is for current policy?
The National Household Survey has lost the benefit of the doubt
Everyone knows – and should have known – that the numbers from the National Household Survey (NHS) would be dodgy. Statistics Canada has always claimed that the NHS numbers would be useful for many purposes, and this line has been swallowed by many. After all, Statistics Canada has a deserved reputation for professionalism, and their […]
Smoking and health care expenditures
In an old post, Chris Auld attacked the "zombie argument" that healthy lifestyles substantially decrease demand on the health care system. As he put it: All people — and I do not mean to shock anyone — die some time, even including people who live very healthy lifestyles. Preventing someone from dying of a smoking-related illness only means […]
Did inflation targeting make the Phillips Curve really flatter or just look flatter?
We know that inflation targeting failed. But we don't know why it failed. One theory is that inflation targeting failed because inflation targeting made the Phillips Curve flatter. It made the Phillips Curve so very flat that keeping inflation close to target wasn't enough to keep output and employment close to potential. Inflation targeting contained […]
A truly unimpressive accomplishment
Note: I have re-written this post in response to comments from biostatistician Thomas Lumley below. It made headlines around the world: Facebook ‘likes’ can reveal users’ politics, sexual orientation, IQ. According to Michal Kosinski, the lead researcher, information on "gender, race, political views, religion, sexual orientation, personality, IQ and so on," can be extracted from the […]
Boys, retention, and multiple regression
A followup to my previous post on university retention and males. Assume boys and girls are identical, except: there's something in the water at high schools that causes boys to do worse than girls; and there's something in the water at universities that causes boys to do worse than girls. Suppose you had a data […]
My simple theory about why macroeconomists disagree.
Every other macro blogger seems to be taking a crack at this question. I like what they have to say. But I have a much simpler theory. Let's suppose you wanted to design an experiment to test the effects of monetary and fiscal policy. And suppose you had the power to do whatever you wanted, […]
Chalk Up Another for the Economics of Google Searches
The Google search engine continues to demonstrate its use as a tool for predicting human behaviour and activity based on the frequency of topics searched by its users. Google data has been used to track flu activity and even fertility behaviour. A Banca D’Italia November 2012 working paper by Francesco D’Amuri and Juri Marcucci is […]
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