Category Finance
Bitcoin as PAYGO Pension Plan. And Land.
Suppose the government starts a Pay As You GO (unfunded) pension plan. What the young pay into the plan today is what the old take out today. The first generation gets lucky; they get a pension paid out, but never put anything in. And if the plan ever gets wound up, the last generation of […]
Loanable Funds Redux
Stop talking about "saving". Talk instead about "demand for assets". You will be happier, and your head will be clearer. Your students too will be happier, and their heads will be clearer. Demand for assets is a thing; saving is a non-thing (a residual). Things are clearer than non-things. Saving is the part of your […]
Hilbert’s Hotel and the National Debt when r < g
Hilbert's Hotel has infinitely many rooms. Even if every room is full, you can still make room for one more guest in room 1, by moving the guest currently in room 1 to room 2, moving the guest currently in room 2 to room 3, and so on forever. When the rate of interest r […]
The Federal Debt of the United States, 1791 to 2018: A Presidential Ranking
A recent story in the National Post by Tristan Hopper highlighted the “utterly unbelievable scale” of current US federal public debt levels. As is always the case, it is useful to get some historical perspective on the evolution of the U.S. federal debt over time – which under President Trump has become the biggest U.S. […]
Inflation and the Debt/GDP ratio
I'm trying to write a simple explainer. The best way to understand how inflation affects the debt/GDP ratio is to start out with a scenario where it doesn't. Then look at ways in which the real world is not like that scenario. Here's the "No Effect" scenario: The Bank of Canada suddenly decides to raise […]
Explaining S=I: Inventories vs Adding up Individuals
It's easy to teach students the arithmetic showing that actual saving must equal actual investment (S=I). But many students (quite rightly) want more than the arithmetic. Because S=I is not intuitive, and good students want to understand the intuition. I think that most profs will try to explain the intuition by talking about inventories of […]
Addressing Ontario’s Fiscal Challenges
While 2017-18 saw a surplus of $642 million after years of deficits, the 2018-19 Ontario budget now projects a deficit of $6.7 billion and a net provincial debt of $325 billion with deficits projected to continue for five years afterwards. If one considers the recent report of the Auditor-General, then Ontario’s deficit may be even […]
Another Picture That Will Define Ontario Politics for the Next Four Years
Ontario is getting a Throne Speech this week and a budget next week and these events will set the stage for the June election. In her recent post, Frances drew attention to the province's public finances via the public sector wage bill and the public-private sector wage differential and that cutting the public sector wage […]
A Balassa Samuelson theory of negative real interest rates despite productive investment and impatient representative agent
I think this is right (but I can't do the math to work out an example to be sure, though any competent grad student could). The idea is that you can get negative interest rates, despite productive investment and impatient consumers, because the prices of the goods you can invest to produce more of will […]
The Sustainable Bond-Finance Laffer Curve
Imagine an economy growing at rate g, with an interest rate on government bonds r, and a constant debt/GDP ratio D/Y. The government gains revenue from issuing new bonds gD each year, and loses revenue from paying interest rD each year. If r<g then the government earns positive net revenue from having and maintaining a […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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