Category Fiscal policy
Ideology, Business Cycles and Macroeconomics
Being more of an empirical bent, I do not generally indulge in the analysis of macroeconomic theory as thinking about it often causes me to recall what I think was a quote by John Kenneth Galbraith something to the effect that “Macroeconomics is like a religion, nobody truly knows what comes in the hereafter.” More […]
My simple theory about why macroeconomists disagree.
Every other macro blogger seems to be taking a crack at this question. I like what they have to say. But I have a much simpler theory. Let's suppose you wanted to design an experiment to test the effects of monetary and fiscal policy. And suppose you had the power to do whatever you wanted, […]
The Duke of Wellington on the best way to start a Japanese debt crisis
I happened to read Michael Schuman's article in Time. The title is "Will Japan's Next Prime Minister Start a Debt Crisis?" . My immediate reaction: I hope so. Because the only thing that can save Japan is a debt crisis. It's a pity Japan didn't have a debt crisis 20 years ago, but better late […]
Cantillon effects and non-SUPER-neutrality = does fiscal policy matter?
Scott Sumner and Bill Woolsey have been fighting valiantly against the Austrians. The fight is about "Cantillon effects" — non-neutralities of money that are supposed to arise not from the increase in the money supply itself but from where exactly that new money enters the economy. Sometimes you get a clearer answer to a question […]
$600b debt x (2% inflation + 2.5% real growth) = $27b
Just a little bit of simple debt and deficit arithmetic. Let's adjust the deficit for long run inflation and long run real growth. That cuts the deficit by around $27 billion.
Why Harper is Not Going to Halifax
The provincial premiers are meeting on the economy in Halifax today and tomorrow and Prime Minister Harper will not be joining them. Several of them have offered up expressions of surprise and disappointment and have lamented the absence of the Prime Minister. The operatic drama that often characterizes exchanges at federal-provincial meetings has been absent […]
Growing Ontario One Report at a Time
The Conference Board of Canada has chimed in on what ails Ontario and how to get it moving in a recently released report titled Needed: A Comprehensive Growth Strategy for Ontario. The report argues that after rebounding from the 2008-09 recession, Ontario has slipped into tepid growth of around 2 percent annually and needs a […]
Precautionary taxation vs tax-smoothing – on paying down the debt
Bob Murphy is arguing with Steve Landsburg over whether the debt/GDP ratio should be (slowly, eventually) reduced. So I have to join in. Plus, (with my Carleton colleague Vivek Dehejia) I actually published a paper once on this very topic (unfortunately not available online) (link here thanks to Keshav Srinivasan). (Just to forestall some comments, […]
One of These Countries is Not Like the Others
Given that the Finance Minister is presenting the Federal Fiscal Update today in Fredericton, it is instructive to review some fiscal comparisons right out of the release of the 2012 Federal Fiscal Reference Tables (which in turn used the OECD Economic Outlook May 2012 numbers for the international comparison). Figure 1 plots the ratio of […]
Waiting for the bond vigilantes
Paul Krugman is right if he is talking about a small attack by the bond vigilantes. It's a good thing, because it increases Aggregate Demand, which is what the US economy needs. But too much of a good thing will be a bad thing. A large attack by the bond vigilantes would be a bad […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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