This is a non-partisan blog – when the NDP, Liberals or Conservatives make a policy proposal that doesn't make much sense, we call them on it.  I do not hide the fact that over the past few years, I have supported the Greens.  However, if I refuse to hold the Greens to the same standards I hold […]

Anyone who has seen my Twitter feed this week has seen that I've grown quite frustrated with Canadian politics lately, with the fact that all of the parties took identical (bad) positions on the Potash decision being a particular annoyance.  During the past two elections I have given the maximum legal amount to candidates I […]

Two weeks ago Rob Gilroy posted some fascinating research by National Bank on the profit margins of various manufacturing industries and how they would be affected by a 5% appreciation of the Canadian dollar: Note that profit margin reduction differs between manufacturing industries.  This is due to the different exporting profiles of different industries (the […]

From CTV News: CIBC World Markets expects the Canadian dollar to sink to about 93 cents (U.S.) this winter. I decided to see what CIBC World Markets were predicting for the price of oil this winter.  I couldn't find a winter prediction, but did find their prediction for 2011 of $75. Plug $75 into MERT […]

It has been about 6 months since we last looked at MERT - my toy for examining the relationship between oil prices, interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar (relative to the greenback).  It turns out that in 2010 the toy has done a very good job at 'predicting' the value of the Canadian dollar, […]

Paul Krugman believes it is a slam dunk.  It's probably a bad idea to argue with a Nobel prize winner, but my understanding was the science was not quite as settled on that point as Prof. Krugman would have us believe.  Below the fold I'll cite a few pieces of research on the topic.

A follow-up to Prof Gordon's blog entry on Dan Trefler's op-ed.  There are (at least) three traps you can fall into when analyzing the effects of changes to the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate on Canadian business.  In my view the Trefler op-ed falls into at least two of the three traps.  After the break I will discuss […]

I am really enjoying the Economy Lab feature at the Globe and Mail.  Two stories in particular caught my eye: Why Canada's manufacturing sector is dwindling and Get ready for a $1.15 loonie.  Keeping in mind Dan Gardner's warnings on expert predictions, both pieces hit the mark.  In particular, Prof. Gordon is correct that the […]

Since a discussion has developed in An updated history of the federal budget balance about where the Federal government gets their tax revenue from.  Without comment, here is a chart.  The data is federal government only, from CANSIM 385-0001.

Like Stephen Gordon I am constantly frustrated with the backwards fiscal policies peddled by political parties.  My frustration comes from a slightly different source – I believe they're unnecessary not just from an economic point of view, but also a political point of view .  I don't believe policy affects voting behaviour in a significant way (with […]