Category Monetary policy
The gizmo theory of the recession
I've just come up with a new theory of what caused the recent recession. There was a technological improvement in making gizmos. The productivity of gizmo producers increased, so the price of gizmos fell. The demand for gizmos is price-inelastic. So total revenue from gizmo production fell. So incomes from producing gizmos fell.
Blue sky money two – money and not banking
Banking is a subset of finance. Money and finance go together. Money and banking go even more together. But they don't have to go together. Maybe they didn't ought to go together. Finance is unstable. Banking is even more unstable than the rest of finance. A bank makes promises it knows it might not be […]
The political economy of nominal wage targeting
WARNING: if you are not a macroeconomist you may not understand this post, even if you think you do. This is especially true if you are not a macroeconomist but think you know something about "political economy". (When I hear the words "political economy" I usually reach for my shovel.*) This post is an experiment. […]
Blue sky money one – the dual mandate
Leland Yeager's (ed.) "In search of a monetary constitution" was the book that most excited my thinking about monetary economics as a PhD student. He asked the contributors to the volume to design a monetary system from scratch. He told them to think "blue sky". I can't remember all the contents. The answers given were […]
Darwin Awards, and other random thoughts on the Euro
1. Is the European Central Bank, or maybe the whole EU, a good candidate for a Darwin Award? There doesn't seem to be a category for institutions that bring about their own demise through their own self-destructive behaviour, but perhaps there should be. In the very long run we should perhaps be thankful for dysfunctional […]
Could the failed German bond sale be good news for the Euro?
File this one under "desperately looking for a silver lining in the unfolding disaster". Suppose, just suppose, that all 17 Eurozone countries were identical. Suppose they were all at the Eurozone average. Suppose they all faced the same default risk and moderately high interest rates on their government bonds. What would the European Central Bank […]
The inflation fallacy
Sometimes I despair. Sometimes I wonder if the inflation fallacy is at the root of all the US and Eurozone troubles. It's so easy to get popular support for the idea that printing money will cause inflation, and inflation means a fall in our real income. So it's much better to have high unemployment, low […]
Tightening money and widening Eurozone spreads
How do we know the Eurozone crisis has been getting worse over the last few days? The indicator that I watch most closely, and I think others watch most closely, is the yield spread between German government bonds and the bonds of other Eurozone governments. If those spreads widen, it means the crisis is getting […]
Instrument rules, target rules, NGDP, complexity and learning
At one extreme you have pure discretion. The central bank does whatever it thinks is best. At the other extreme you have an instrument rule. The rule specifies exactly how the central bank should set the monetary policy instrument, conditional on the indicators (i.e. conditional on its information). The Taylor Rule is an example of […]
The ECB’s internal contradictions
The Eurozone news is really depressing. I think things are going to be very bad very soon. I don't have much to say that I haven't already said in previous posts. But thought I would add this anyway, FWIW. The ECB doesn't like inflation uncertainty; it wants to keep inflation predictable and just below 2%. […]
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