Category Monetary policy
The new Governor of the Bank of Canada…
…is Mark Carney. That’s twice in a row that a governor has been an external candidate – although he has worked there before. I suspect that Bank employees who are thinking about the top job will start sending their CVs to the Department of Finance or perhaps the IMF. The days of appointing a governor […]
What is going on in the overnight market?
The Bank of Canada has intervened in the overnight market for four days in a row now: $985m on Thursday, $1.087b on Friday, $890m Monday, and another $855m yesterday. Update: Make it five in a row – another $520m today. What’s going on? The Globe and Mail’s Heather Scoffield had an article on this the […]
What the Bank of Canada is thinking about
Now that the Fed has cut its interest rate by 50 bps, it’s time to start speculating about what the Bank of Canada will do on October 16. It should be noted that the Bank is dealing with a very different problem than the one facing the Fed. Indeed, it’s facing a problem that the […]
What will the Bank of Canada do?
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is in two weeks: 13 days before the next FOMC. There’s any amount of speculation about what the Bank will do, and I’m more than happy to indulge in this game as well, but let’s look at some of the background: 1) The Bank of Canada has […]
Manufacturing obsession
Here are some data* on how the Canadian labour market has evolved since the CAD started appreciating against the USD five years ago: Very belated update: As a faithful reader of Andrew Gelman’s blog, I’ve been wondering if there was a better way of conveying this information. I think a bar chart would have been […]
Yes, the Bank of Canada will increase interest rates in July
Bank Governor David Dodge gave a speech today, and repeated the warnings of higher interest rates ahead: [S]ince April, we have seen two things: an increased risk of future inflation and a rise in the Canadian dollar that appears to have been stronger than historical experience would have suggested. At our last fixed announcement date, […]
The Bank of Canada should raise interest rates tomorrow, but it probably won’t
The Bank of Canada hasn’t changed its target for the overnight rate since May 24, 2006 – seven consecutive decisions to not change the target have followed. But there are several reasons to think that the time has come for this streak to end: Core inflation has been steadily drifting up over the past few […]
Who will be the new Governor of the Bank of Canada?
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge will not seek second term: Governor David Dodge has informed the Bank of Canada’s Board of Directors and the Minister of Finance that he will not seek a second term as Governor. While Governor Dodge’s term continues until 31 January 2008, he indicated he is making his plans known […]
The Bank of Canada switches to manual
When the Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.25% last May, it indicated that the target was going to stay there for some time. The time may be coming soon – CPI core inflation has been above 2% for several months now: It’s unlikely that the Bank will increase interest […]
The #1 reason to fear a hard landing in the US: There are no cushions
A US recession seems inevitable now. Unfortunately for those of us who would be negatively affected by this development, US policy-makers have, in their wisdom, stripped themselves of the means to attenuate its effects. Monetary policy: The Fed didn’t stop raising interest rates in August because it thought that inflation was under control; it did […]
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