Category Nick Rowe
VAR vs WTF!?
Vector auto regressions (VARs) are supposed to tell us how the economy would respond over time if hit by a shock, by looking at past patterns of responses to shocks. A "shock" means "a deviation of one of the variables in the VAR from the level that was forecast by the VAR". And "shocks" include […]
When I really learned the David Ricardo idea
[Update: Tim Worstall has a beautiful response to this post, applying the Ricardian idea to trade between humans and robots (or the human owners of robots). Will the robots out-compete us in everything, causing mass unemployment? Nope. Robots will never have a comparative advantage in everything. Once again, Tim's Ricardian point seems totally obvious once […]
The mechanics of exchange and non market-clearing prices
[Update: on second thoughts, maybe this post was not quite ready for prime-time. But I think it's still fun to play with.] Here is a very simple model of a pure exchange economy where the mechanics of exchange (who can trade what with whom) determine whether very small departures of prices from market-clearing cause very […]
Deficit targeting vs Debt targeting
Is a "balanced budget law", even a flexible law that allows temporary deficits (and surpluses) in appropriate circumstances, the right way to think about prudent sustainable fiscal policy? A financial asset is just a bit of paper with a promise written on it. A promise is a commitment about the future actions of the promiser, […]
Noah vs Steve: a suggested interpretation
Is Woodford's "cashless" economy a model of a monetary exchange economy, or a model of a barter economy? (In a monetary exchange economy, all other goods are only exchanged for one good called "money"; in a barter economy each good can be exchanged for any other good.) If you answer "barter economy", then modern New […]
Secular stagnation, liquidity, and rent/price ratios
No answers here, only questions. By "secular stagnation" I mean "declining equilibrium real interest rates". Most explanations of secular stagnation say it is caused by a rising desire to save and/or a falling investment demand. Call this the "Saving/Investment Hypothesis". But there are lots of different real interest rates. For example, the real interest rate […]
Overdrafts with 100% reserve banking
I was reading Frosti Sigurjonsson's proposal for monetary reform in Iceland. [Click on the document thingy halfway down the page.] His proposal is a variant on 100% reserve banking. I got stuck on page 72 and footnote 66, where he discusses overdrafts. This post is just my attempt to get my own head clear on […]
Monetary policy in New Keynesian models is Gesellian
In one important respect, what we call "New Keynesian" macroeconomic models are in fact New Gesellian macroeconomic models. That's only in one respect, but it is important. Silvio Gesell proposed a tax on currency. The higher the tax rate, the faster people would spend that currency. A tax is a negative subsidy. The higher the […]
Buyer’s liquidity vs seller’s liquidity
Liquid goods are easy to buy and sell. Illiquid goods are hard to buy and sell. I think we need to break up "buy and sell" into its two component parts. In a buyer's market, goods are easy to buy and hard to sell. The same good is liquid from the buyer's perspective, and illiquid […]
Asymmetric home bias and the transfer problem
A random thought on Germany and Greece. If apple producers and banana producers have the same symmetric Cobb-Douglas preferences U = A0.5.B0.5 the competitive equilibrium has half the apple crop being exchanged for half the banana crop. But if the apple producers only like apples, and refuse to eat bananas, the relative price of apples […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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