Category Nick Rowe

“Inflation derps” are people from the concrete steppes

Suppose I lend you $1,000, at 0% interest. But I warn you that as soon as you spend that $1,000, or lend it to someone else to spend, I will immediately make you repay the loan, or else raise the interest rate high enough to make you regret spending it or lending it. You will […]

Sign wars, and stability, with price level targeting

Suppose, just suppose, that everyone knows that the price level will be exactly 100 in 2084. (That's 70 years from now, to keep the math simple). Because in 2084 the central bank will redeem all the outstanding notes, in exchange for real goods, at a price of 100 notes per real good. And will then […]

Dumb questions about forward guidance in New Keynesian models

I feel I ought to know the answer to this question. But I don't. Suppose that demand this period Y(t) depends on the interest rate this period r(t), and on the expected interest rate next period E[r(t+1)], and on a vector of other stuff X(t). Y(t) = D(r(t), E[r(t+1)], X(t))  where D1 < 0, D2 […]

Paying back the loan of forward guidance

If I read Stephen Poloz correctly, the Bank of Canada will not normally be doing forward guidance in the future. But it will use forward guidance in an emergency. I do not clearly understand Steve's reasoning (see section 7 of his discussion paper), but I think this is the right decision. "Forward guidance" is a […]

The representative agent does not know what he is doing

[This is based on an informal talk I gave to Carleton students. There were first year students, and upper year undergraduates, and graduate students, and faculty, in the audience, which made it a little tricky.] Somewhere in Canada there is a person whose height is exactly equal (or almost exactly equal) to the average height […]

Helicopters, redemption, and the target

Tony Yates is arguing with Willem Buiter about helicopter money. Willem says that helicopter money increases aggregate demand even in a liquidity trap, because helicopter money increases net wealth, because money is irredeemable. Tony says that if money is irredeemable, the existence of an equilibrium in which intrinsically worthless money has positive value becomes problematic. […]

How to test whether the LMI (LMCI) is a good indicator

The Bank of Canada calls theirs the "Labour Market Indicator". I now learn from Tim Duy (HT Mark Thoma) that the US Fed has one too, and calls theirs the "Labor Market Conditions Index". I think that LMI and LMCI are roughly the same sort of thing. It's an index number that is supposed to […]

The relation between ZLB, NGDP, QE, and G

Nothing new here. This is just a brief summary of my views:

How can we know if government spending is money-financed?

I have a proposal that would improve aggregate demand management. I call my proposal "money-financed government expenditure on sacrificing goats". I propose that every time the government sacrifices one goat, the Bank of Canada is required by law to increase the base money supply permanently by $1 billion, relative to what it would otherwise have […]

Labour market slack in Canada and the US

Paul Krugman says: "My guess is that there’s considerably more slack [in the US labour market] than the unemployment number might lead you to suspect, but the truth is that I don’t know." Timothy Lane, deputy governor Bank of Canada, has an estimate that agrees with Paul's guess. He says (in a talk at Carleton […]