Category Nick Rowe
The Division of Labour between interest rate and exchange rate
Stephen's graphs show quite clearly that Canadian monetary policy must tighten before US monetary policy. I'm convinced. But what does monetary policy mean? In this context, I'm going to ignore other interpretations, and just focus on interest rates and exchange rates. What is the division of labour between increasing interest rates and appreciating exchange rates? […]
International reserves and involuntary borrowing
Borrowing is nearly always voluntary. Somebody might want to lend to me, but they can't force me to borrow from them if I don't want to. But there's an exception. A country that issues the reserve currency can be forced to borrow from other countries, if those other countries want to lend to it. This […]
Net Import Quotas and Tariffs: China and Paul Krugman
Here's another way to think about what Paul Krugman is saying: it is as if China has a quota on net imports. An ordinary import quota means that the government places a ceiling on the value of imports. In this case, it's not a ceiling on gross imports, but on net imports (imports minus exports). […]
Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; does the Zero Lower Bound matter?
I want to compare the economies of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand over the last couple of years. I know I will get things wrong, and leave important things out. That's what comments are for. Especially comments from Australia and New Zealand. Why these three countries? Apart from any historical, cultural, and political similarities, all […]
Some simple arithmetic of debt/GDP and population growth
I had always known that a given debt/GDP ratio would be more worrying for a country with declining population than for a country with a growing population. There will be fewer future people to carry the same future burden. But I had never sat down to do the arithmetic, until just now. What surprised me […]
Three thoughts on the Budget
None very insightful, but for what they are worth:
The Debt of Strangers
Does this question make sense: "Is debt too high?"? It certainly makes sense for me to ask whether my debt is too high. Should I try to earn more income, reduce my consumption, or sell off some assets? And if a friend asks me whether his debt is too high, I could offer him advice […]
Shouldn’t Taylor Rules include Fiscal Policy? The Fiscal exit strategy.
Most economists believe that for a given path of nominal interest rates chosen by the central bank, a looser fiscal policy (higher deficits, through lower taxes and/or higher spending) will cause higher Aggregate Demand, and therefore higher real output and/or inflation. Therefore, if a central bank is choosing a path for nominal interest rates in […]
“Fire-and-forget” fiscal policy
If you wanted to build a "fire-and-forget" fiscal policy, or where you at least minimised the chances you would ever again want to change any of the tax and spend rules, what would it look like? I was thinking about Stephen's question: if we had a good enough social safety net, wouldn't that create a […]
Saturday Night Fever: Roger Farmer, multiple natural rates, search theory, and share prices
Roger Farmer is an old grad skool buddy. We were in the same MA and PhD class at UWO in the late 1970's, though we have lost touch a bit over the decades. That's a sort of disclaimer. Roger preferred punk to disco; I think he was right on that score. But Peter Diamond's "A […]
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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