Category The 2008-9 recession
The May LFS survey: Ontari-ari-ario is not a place to grow
The May LFS release pretty much cancels out the (surprising) growth in employment we saw in April. Here is the latest in my series of graphs comparing the current recession with previous experiences: It's way too early to break out the party hats, but we can perhaps set aside direct comparisons with the Great Depression. […]
EI reform: Jack Mintz piles on
I am pleased to report that another voice has been added to the public debate on whether the Liberals' proposals for EI are dumber than a sack of hammers or if they are simply pointless. Jack Mintz has written an op-ed for the National Post on the topic, and it starts thus: Jack Mintz: 360 […]
Canadian long-term interest rates are increasing as well
A certain amount of attention has been focused on the recent jump in the yields on longer-term US government bonds. There are at least two interpretations: 1) This is good news. In normal times, an increase in the spread between long- and short-term interest rates would be interpreted as a signal that the economy is […]
Is fiscal conservatism about deficits or debt?
I was on CPAC Sunday evening, on a roundtable with two other economists: David MacDonald (who coordinated the alternative budget for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives); and Glen Hodgson (Chief Economist for the Conference Board). [You can watch it here – SG.] The topic was Canada's projected $50 billion federal deficit; should we be […]
A plea for a sensible change to EI
The Canadian Labour Congress' Andrew Jackson is worried about EI claimants who might be exhausting their benefits. If the opposition is serious about using EI reform as a cudgel for bashing the government, they would do well to read Andrew's post.
On the sheer pointlessness of reducing hours for EI eligibility as a counter-cyclical policy
One of the points I've been making about the psychodrama over reducing the EI eligibility requirements (eg: here and here) takes the form of a question: "Just what problem is this supposed to solve? How many people are there who were hired three months ago – in the teeth of the worst labour market in […]
EI and I on CBC
I was on CBC Newsworld's show Politics this afternoon, along with Derek Burleton of TD Economics, talking about the opposition parties' insistence that the government reduce the number of hours worked before becoming eligible for Employment Insurance (see here, here and here). You can watch the video here – we're in the first segment. We […]
“John Cochrane’s” argument for fiscal stimulus
I just finished reading John Cochrane's paper, where he applies the fiscal theory of the price level to the current crisis. (Thanks Adam P!). OK, I admit I didn't really read it thoroughly; I skimmed it. It's full of good insights, and also bad mistakes. The best thing to do with a paper like that […]
Summoning the ghost
I've been reading through the Annex of the Bank of Canada's most recent Monetary Policy Report (pdf), the "Framework for conducting monetary policy at low interest rates", and reading Deputy Governor John Murray's speech on unconventional monetary policy. I can't quite put my finger on the right metaphor. "Atheists explaining the efficacy of prayer" comes […]
A “Why Fiscal Policy Won’t Work” Contest
I am opening a contest. Let's see who can come up with the most plausible (or least implausible) model in which fiscal policy would not work in present circumstances. This is not an entirely frivolous exercise. David Andolfatto (who runs another excellent Canadian economics blog) has made a number of posts recently questioning the empirical […]
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