Category The 2008-9 recession
Deflation: a less clear and less present danger
It would appear from the April CPI release that the Bank of Canada won't be obliged to figure out how to implement policy quantitative easing after all.
Imagine there’s no money….
Would the current financial crisis matter as much in a world without money? Let me be more specific. Imagine we lived in a world where we still had money as a medium of account, so prices were measured in money. But people did not use any medium of exchange; they used barter instead. Would your […]
Could the natural rate of interest really be negative?
{Update: Preface: Is it possible that an economy could find itself in an absolute liquidity trap because the natural rate of interest went negative? Or is it only possible if mistakes in monetary policy caused expected inflation to go negative?] We argue that the nominal rate of interest cannot be negative. If it were, people […]
Good News! Interest rates rise.
This Bloomberg story reports the Fed saying that rising bond yields are a good sign. They don't precisely say that monetary easing is what caused the rise in interest rates; they are perhaps too modest to claim credit? But I will say it for them: by buying bonds, and easing monetary policy, the Fed has […]
The April Labour Force Survey numbers weren’t all that good
Last Friday, the LFS release for April showed an increase in employment, which was a bit of a surprise. If you add that to the increasingly good news out of the US, then you might be tempted to think that we got out of this one pretty easily: If March 2009 turns out to be […]
Do wage and price cuts increase (real) aggregate demand?
It all depends on what you hold constant when you draw the AD curve in {price level,real output} space. See Paul Krugman, Bryan Caplan (h/t), and David Henderson.
Quantitative Easing circumvents banks’ capital constraints to increase M1
I'm still not sure I fully understand this, but I'm going to post it anyway. That's what blogs are for. [Updated, see halfway down the post.] The basic idea is that one of the ways quantitative easing may work (there are others) is that it allows the central bank to buy stuff directly from the […]
A modest proposal for paying negative interest on currency (or something)
Willem Buiter considers various ways to make interest rates negative. The problem is how to pay negative interest rates on currency. His most interesting proposal is to separate the unit of account from the currency. The dollar would remain the unit of account (at least, he hopes it will). But he would replace dollar notes […]
Is Ignatieff playing with the right Employment Insurance instrument?
Apparently we're going to have yet another political psychodrama, this time over Employment Insurance (EI). Michael Ignatieff is threatening to force an election if the government doesn't go along with the Liberal proposal to make everyone eligible for EI after 360 hours of work. (I should explain to our non-Canadian readers that we've set the […]
Five reasons to be optimistic
Chinese manufacturing is rebounding. News out of the US is not entirely discouraging. As a result, oil prices are starting to drift up. And since production costs have fallen from their boom-induced levels, investment in the oil sands might start to come back. Credit markets are working their way back to normal. The last patch […]
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