Category The 2008-9 recession
International comparisons of construction employment in the recession
Many participants in the ongoing discussion ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5], etc) on international comparisons of the evolution of output and employment have raised the point that construction employment has played a more prominent role than usual in the most recent recession. I've put together a few graphs that may be useful. I'd also like […]
Spain, Ireland, and the US. All breaking Okun’s Law.
In my last post I noted that the US was abnormal in comparison to the other G7 countries. In all the other countries GDP fell by more than employment, so labour productivity fell. That's what normally happens in a recession. Okun's Law says so. But US GDP fell by less than employment, so labour productivity […]
US Productivity Exceptionalism
Stephen's got standards. So I'm going to steal his graphs from his last post, and write the post he could easily have written. Before you look at Stephen's graphs, ask yourself this question. How well did the US fare in the Great Recession, in terms of GDP and employment, compared to other G7 countries? Now […]
The federal budget: Austerity or stimulus or neither?
This year's federal budget is going to be an interesting one. A two-year stimulus package was introduced in 2009, which meant that the 2010 budget didn't have much to say. But now some decisions will have to be made. Should the government extend the fiscal stimulus? Follow the United Kingdom's example and embark on an […]
A 21st century misery index
The 20th century misery index was the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate. In 1982, Canada's inflation rate stood at 10.9 percent,while unemployment was at 11.0 percent, for a 21.9 percent misery index. 2009, with inflation of 0.3 percent and unemployment of 8.3 percent, didn't even come close by old-style misery index measures. Yet, as […]
The 2010Q3 GDP report: Investing in a silver lining
The third quarter GDP growth rate – 1.3% 1.0% at annual rates – is disappointing even though it wasn't entirely unexpected. But there was one important and encouraging piece of news hidden in the lackluster GDP numbers: fixed business investment has finally started to play a role in the recovery.
Some thoughts on the Gauti Eggertsson & Paul Krugman paper
It's an interesting paper (pdf). It's a very standard New Keynesian macro model with one twist. It's a twist worth doing. There are two types of people: the impatient, who borrow from; the patient. And there's an exogenous limit to the debt the impatient are allowed to accumulate. It's a math model, of course. I'm […]
Four questions for the Bank of Canada
Three of those questions are questions the Bank of Canada is asking itself (and anyone else who cares to listen). I want to add a fourth. The Bank held a workshop yesterday. Stephen and I attended, along with a few dozen other Canadian economists. It was about the Bank's inflation targeting framework, which comes up […]
Another view of the sluggish US labour market
My latest post at the Globe and Mail's Economy Lab talks about the distinction between the net changes in employment reported by the Labour Force Survey and the gross flows in and out of employment. In preparation for that post, I looked up the data from the US Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) […]
What (I think) Paul Krugman was saying
Paul Krugman is a very good communicator. I try to emulate him. But I think he blew it on this post. Everybody has an off-day. No big deal. And it wasn't a simple thing to talk about anyway. This is what I think he was saying. This is my attempt to say it more clearly.
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
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