On the one hand, the Bank of Canada has had to intervene repeatedly in the overnight market to defend its target. (It has also added liquidity in the the two days since that post: $495m yesterday and again $420m today.) And the spread between the overnight rate and that of short-term paper is still well above what it was a couple of months ago.

On the other hand, there was good news in the August building permits release, and September’s unemployment rate fell yet again to yet another 30-something-year low. Moreover, the news from the US isn’t uniformly bad.

Put those two conflicting messages together, and it looks more and more as though the Bank will hold interest rates steady on October 16. Especially since the ECB and the Bank of England have just made that decision, in similar circumstances.