The June CPI release: Deflation isn’t here, and the chances that it will arrive are receding

The June CPI numbers played out according to form. Happily, the good people at Statistics Canada went to great lengths to point out exactly how and why the y/y headline number was negative, so – with the notable exception of the Globe and Mail – journalists were able to put together stories that weren't teeth-grindingly stupid.

Here is the June 2009 version of my series of graphs of inflation rates of core CPI – the series that matters for monetary policy:

Core_06_09

Average core CPI inflation over the past three months has now moved above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. A few more months like this, and we can start to forget about the deflation that darkened our doors in the first quarter of 2009.

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