Happy New Year everyone!
Last January we made forecasts for 2010. It's now time to check how well we did. (I will do a separate post for 2011 forecasts).
Commenter Mark wins this one by a mile. Well done Mark!
Here's Mark's forecast [compared with what actually happened]:
CPI, November 2010, year over year: +2.1% [2.0%]
Unemployment, November 2010: 7.5% [7.6%]
US/Can exchange rate, December 31 2010: US$ 1.01 [1.00]
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, December 31 2010: 1.0% [1.00%]
TSX, December 31 2010: 13,500 [13,443]
Damn but Mark's forecast was very good! Or very lucky! Who are you Mark? (If you're an economist, I will claim you are very good; if a non-economist, I will claim you are very lucky!)
Mark was well ahead of the rest of us. At a distant second, I say it's roughly a three-way tie between Brendon, Stephen, and me:
Brendon; Stephen; Nick; [Truth]
CPI 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% [2.0%]
Unemployment 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% [7.6%]
CAD/USD 0.99 1.05 1.05 [1.00]
Overnight Rate 1.25% 1.25% 1.50% [1.00%]
TSX 12,750 12,500 13,000 [13,443]
This is the bit of my forecast that I like the most: "My main worry is that something will go badly wrong in Eurozone financial markets." Well, something has been going wrong, but not yet as badly wrong as I feared. And that fear does seem to be the biggest fear going forward into 2011.
Well done again Mark!
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative 
I wonder if Mark has any predictions on how the TSX will perform in 2011?
If I find time tomorrow, I will do a post for 2011 forecasts, and hope that Mark re-appears. I still can’t get over how accurate he was.
Here is how the real pros did (based on Oct/Nov 2009 forecasts). Forecasts are end of Q42010. No TSX forecast available.
CPI Unemployment CAD/USD BOC Rate
TD 1.6 8.9 0.93 0.75
Scotia 2.1 n/a 1.03 1.50
RBC 1.7 8.5 0.97 1.25
CIBC 1.6 8.7 1.00 0.25
BMO 1.7 8.3 1.00 1.00
Bank of Canada 1.6 n/a n/a n/a
Just eyeballing it, I think the amateurs fared a lot better (and without the hefty price-tag).
hmmm…damn the formatting came out weird.
Thanks Brendon. Man, those banks were pessimistic on unemployment. They were good on the exchange rate though.
Brendon: That’s great stuff! You wouldn’t happen to have a chart of their predictions for 2011?
I do, I’ll post it in the 2011 forecast thread.
WCI, I know you’re all waiting for my (99.99% probability of being wrong) numbers, but I’m swamped at work after the long break and need to think about this a little.
For the record I’m a public sector macro forecaster 😉