Category Macro

Banks, Aggregate Demand, and Aggregate Supply

What is the relation between banks, aggregate demand, and aggregate supply? Do bad banks shift the AD curve or the AS curve? Do bad banks make it harder for fiscal or monetary policy to shift the AD curve? Some economists argue that you need to fix the banks (and the financial system) to get an […]

Interest rate control: maybe theory was right after all?

There used to be a debate over interest rate control vs. base control of monetary policy. We always knew (at least some of us always knew) that interest rate control couldn't work in theory, but it seemed to work in practice, so eventually even the die-hard defenders of base control quietened down, or were ignored, […]

Say’s Law, Walras’ Law, and monetary policy

"Deficiencies of aggregate demand are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". There's an excess supply of newly-produced goods, and an excess demand for money. But what exactly does an excess demand for money mean? And what does it mean for the effectiveness of monetary policy?

Why failed bond auctions are good news

Suppose an increased supply of government bonds to finance deficit spending were met with an increased demand for government bonds from the private sector, so that interest rates stayed the same, and the bond issue were fully subscribed. That is exactly what would happen for a bond-financed tax cut under full Ricardian Equivalence, for example. […]

“Failed” government bond sales?

The UK government "failed" to sell all the bonds it wanted to sell to finance its deficit spending. The story is here. And here. There are many aspects of this story I find puzzling.

Economic Impact Assessments, and fiscal policy: the fallacy of decomposition

Some extra money from the last Federal budget went to fund new projects at universities. As part of its application for funds, each university must say how it plans to spend the money, and also do an "Economic Impact Assessment". I have been called in to help. I know little about EIA. I remember a […]

Is quantitative easing trying to raise or lower interest rates?

The Bank of England has switched to quantitative easing. It is buying long bonds (gilts). What would count as a signal of success? We could argue that falling yields would signal success, because it is trying to reduce long interest rates to stimulate investment. But we could equally argue that rising yields would signal success, […]

Temporary vs. permanent quantitative easing

A permanent increase in the money supply (or one that is expected to be permanent) will have a different, and bigger, effect today than a temporary increase in the money supply (or one that is expected to be temporary). To say the same thing a different way, an increase in the expected future money supply […]

Liquidity and aggregate demand

Money is perfectly liquid. Other assets are not as liquid as money, but some are more liquid than others. One of the main features of the financial crisis is that some assets became less liquid than they had previously been. I want to look at the channels through which a fall in the liquidity of […]

A model of wealth distribution, falling interest rates, ZIRP, unemployment, and quantitative easing

I will sketch a simple model in which the distribution of wealth gets more unequal over time, how the equilibrium real interest rate falls over time, eventually leading to a zero nominal interest rate, and unemployment. I will then show that an increase in the money supply can increase employment, despite zero nominal interest rates.